| Company | Promise | Made | Marked Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| DG Dollar General | Modest SG&A deleverage in 2026 was forecast in Q1 2026 earnings call Q2 SG&A leverage was flat, not delevered, after tariff reinvestments | Q1'27 | Q2'27 |
| DELL Dell Technologies | Deliver AI server revenue growth >800% YoY (Q1) Q2 AI revenue only $16.4 bn versus $16.1 bn prior, growth ~102% YoY, far below 800% target | Q1'27 | Q2'27 |
| ROST Ross Stores | Store refresh program continuation after evaluating learnings Program paused after completing half the chain, timeline now unclear | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| NKE NIKE | Greater China revenue trends over the near term to be in line with recent performance (then -7%) China declined 26% this quarter, a severe acceleration versus the -7% base that was supposed to hold. | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| MOD Modine Manufacturing | Margins would improve sequentially through the year Q1 margins deteriorated massively from Q4, opposite of promise | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | HOKA to achieve low double digit growth in fiscal 2027 Already backed down to high single digits for Q2, suggesting full year target at risk | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| ARM Arm | Licensing revenue growth ~20% YoY for FY27 Licensing fell 30% QoQ; YoY still +23% but management now highlights ACV instead. | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| ARM Arm | Operating margin around 49% for FY26 Margin fell to 41% in Q1, indicating cost pressure or pricing softness. | Q4'26 | Q1'27 |
| PG Procter & Gamble | Organic sales >3% YoY for FY26 Delivered only +1% YoY; Q4 flat after pull‑forward adjustment. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| PG Procter & Gamble | Global market‑share improvement in FY26 Q4 described as “in line” with prior year; down from “improved” in Q3. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| ORCL Oracle | Maintain 30-40% gross margins on AI infrastructure Actual margin came in at 32% and declining, with Hillary admitting 'pressure on near-term gross margins' | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| ORCL Oracle | Continue innovation in business models to grow without dilution Announcing $40B debt and equity raise including $20B equity ATM program | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| ORCL Oracle | Applications maintaining double-digit growth Cloud apps grew only 10%, down from 11% last quarter | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| MU Micron Technology | Fiscal Q4 operating expenses guide of approximately $1.65 billion Actual Q4 OpEx was $2.6 billion, driven by a deliberate decision to increase FY26 incentive compensation for every global team member. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| MSFT Microsoft | Foundry reaching 1 trillion token customers Said 'over 300 customers on track' but this is future-looking not achieved | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| LRCX Lam Research | China WFE flattish year over year Now guiding China revenue down, complete reversal | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| LRCX Lam Research | Return at least 85% of FCF over time Only returned 45% in Q4, though claims 81% YTD | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| IREN Iron Networks | Raise $2.6 B cash by end‑Q3 2026 Cash at June 30 was $7.6 B, but $1.7 B is restricted; free cash remained negative. No evidence of net cash increase matching promise. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| INTU Intuit | Scale direct sales team by ~30% to drive new customer growth Q3 announced scaling, but Q4 customer growth slowed to 3% YoY, suggesting the hire‑driven pipeline underperformed | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| EAT Brinker International | We plan to complete another 8 to 10 reimages during the remainder of this fiscal year Combined with the 4 already done at the time of that promise, total expected was ~12-14; actual completed for FY26 was 11, below the implied range. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| DRI Darden Restaurants | Fine dining would see improvement from private dining focus Fine dining SSS decelerated from 2.1% to 1.9% despite the focus | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| COST Costco Wholesale | 26 net new warehouse openings planned for fiscal year 2026 Actual came in at 25 net new buildings for FY26 (28 opened including 3 relocations), one unit short of the 26 promised last quarter; a minor but real miss on a hard, countable metric. | Q3'26 | Q4'26 |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | ACL ratio expected to see 'a comparable increase' of about two basis points in Q3 and Q4 The reported four-basis-point increase was larger than the approximately two-basis-point expectation. This is a forecast variance, not evidence that larger reserves are inherently good or bad. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| TFC Truist Financial | Q3 2026 net interest income to increase approximately 1.5% linked quarter Actual TE NII increased only 1.1% LQ to $3.7B versus the 1.5% guide - a modest shortfall despite the extra day benefit cited. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| TFC Truist Financial | Q3 2026 non-interest income to remain relatively stable on a linked-quarter basis Reported non-interest income fell to $84M due to AFS repositioning and RAC losses; even adjusted non-interest income declined 2.9% LQ, missing the 'stable' characterization. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| TDG TransDigm Group | We continue to work towards a closing on Stellent and look forward to owning this business in the not-too-distant future. Deal was withdrawn in mid-July after DOJ signaled intent to challenge it under HSR; management confirmed the withdrawal and reasoning this quarter. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions | Maintain dividend payout Q3 announcement to eliminate dividend contradicts Q2 commitment. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions | Deliver >10% YoY growth in broad‑markets (Q2) Q3 broad‑markets grew 8% YoY, down from 10% YoY in Q2. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares | Non-interest expense run rate of approximately $50 million per quarter going forward Q3 expense of $52.2M exceeded the prior roughly $50M run rate. Management attributed about $2M to nonrecurring costs and now expects a $50M-$51M quarterly run rate. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| QCOM Qualcomm | 20% share assumption at Apple Now 'materially lower' due to supply constraints | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| MTB M&T Bank | I think third quarter, they're going to have to rebuild pipelines. I think we'll grow, but probably more modestly third quarter C&I (CNI) loans came in largely unchanged at $65.9 billion in Q3, not the 'more modest growth' that was promised. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| MS Morgan Stanley | For the third quarter, we expect a modest sequential increase in NII. NII actually declined sequentially to $2.2 billion from $2.3 billion, explicitly described as 'down modestly'. This is a clean guidance miss on a metric with a defined quarter-end deadline. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| MCO Moody's | 'For MIS, we expect low single digit revenue growth in Q3 as market activity slows through the summer' MIS revenue actually came in at $1.1B, down 1% yoy, versus the guided low single digit growth. A clear miss on an ended-period, explicitly stated guidance figure. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| JCI Johnson Controls International | Service order growth to improve from Q2 softness 4% growth still well below system growth of 40%, problem persisting | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| HAL Halliburton | Q3 C&P division: sequential revenue flat to down 2%, margins improve 125-175bps Management explicitly stated C&P revenue and operating margins were 'both below our expectations', driven by NA frac, Argentina, and a slower Saudi contract startup | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| DIS Walt Disney | International visitation headwinds will ease in the coming quarters. Management now says weakness continues into Q4 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs | Expect steel shipment volumes above 4.3 million tons in Q3 Actual shipments were 4.2 million tons, below the guided floor. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs | Expect average price to increase another $55 per ton in Q3 Actual increase was $53 per ton; management characterized it as 'right in line' but it is technically below guide. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| BAC Bank of America | NII ex-Global Markets breakout to be provided 'offline' to analysts Six months later, management explicitly stated they are 'probably not going to break it out between the two' going forward, reversing the earlier offer of transparency. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AZO AutoZone | Q3 to open 90 to 95 stores globally Only opened 82 stores, fell short of guided range | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AZO AutoZone | Gross margin to benefit from merchandise margins Gross margin down 57 bps even excluding LIFO; merchandise margin benefits didn't materialize | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AZO AutoZone | Manage SG&A in line with sales growth over time SG&A grew 7.6% versus sales growth of 8.4%, but still close | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AZO AutoZone | International same store sales to improve Deteriorated to 1.6% from 2.5% last quarter | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| ADI Analog Devices | Q3 outlook baked in a flat channel inventory weeks assumption Channel weeks actually fell below the 6 to 7 week target rather than staying flat; a different outcome than the flat assumption, though not necessarily a negative for the business. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | CGM market described as plateauing around 8%-9% growth absent reimbursement expansion Actual trajectory cut further to low-to-mid single digits this quarter, worse than the 8-9% characterization given last quarter. | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AAPL Apple | Services to grow at similar rate to March quarter Services decelerated 400 bps from 16% to 12%, blamed on FX and gaming | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| AAPL Apple | Supply constraints primarily on Mac, manageable for iPhone Now saying constraints will 'increase significantly' affecting iPhone, Mac, and iPad | Q2'26 | Q3'26 |
| ZTS Zoetis | Librela 'has stabilized in the U.S. with roughly flat growth' This quarter's Canine OA pain mAbs fell $34 million, down 24%, directly reversing the stabilization claim from last quarter. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| XYL Xylem | Applied Water to get back above 20% EBITDA margins Q2 margin was 50 bps down YoY, below expectations | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| XYL Xylem | China bottoming out Still declining at 27% YoY; can't definitively call bottom | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| XPO XPO Logistics | Q2 OR to outperform high end of 250-300 bps sequential improvement OR improved 390 bps sequentially but this was actually at the high end, not above it | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| XOM Exxon Mobil | Enterprise transformation to deliver major value Pushed major rollouts to 2027, only 'early deployments' completed | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| WULF TerraWulf | I have said that we expect to have a customer in place in the second quarter, and I remain highly confident. The Anthropic lease was executed 'following quarter end', meaning after June 30, not within Q2 as promised; a narrow but real timing miss despite the strong economics of the eventual deal. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| WULF TerraWulf | For CB3, we are on track to complete our defined scope by the end of May. CB3 was actually delivered and generating lease revenue in early July, roughly five to six weeks later than guided. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| WULF TerraWulf | CB4 and CB5 remain on track for delivery in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. CB4 delivery held at late September (within Q3), but CB5 slipped from the promised Q4 2026 to 'very early January' 2027, a real slip on the CB5 half of this compound promise. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| VRT Vertiv Holdings | Maintain 30-35% incremental margins Q2 incremental margins came in low 20s sequentially per analyst questioning | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| VMC Vulcan Materials | Close California concrete divestiture in Q2. Divestiture still pending; no close announced during call. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| VLO Valero Energy | Port Arthur crude units restart by May 1 Never mentioned, appears delayed or abandoned as a target | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| URI United Rentals | Flat margins for full year 2026 Q2 margins down 40bps YoY ex-gains despite claiming cost savings are working | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| URI United Rentals | Manage delivery costs effectively Still talking about repositioning challenges, fuel added 20-30bps headwind | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| URI United Rentals | Supply chain flexibility to meet demand Admitted they couldn't get another $1B of fleet, contradicting Q1 confidence | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| UNP Union Pacific | Comp per employee increase 4-5% Raised to 6% due to benefits inflation | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| UMC United Microelectronics | Maintain $1.5B CAPEX budget Revised upward to $2B, 33% increase | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TXT Textron | Strong start to year with growth in each manufacturing segment Q2 growth decelerated to 3% from Q1's 12%; aviation grew only 1% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TXT Textron | Supply chain improvements continuing Admitted still having key component issues, internal problems as big as external | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TXT Textron | Deliveries to increase each quarter this year Jets down YoY, only up 3 units QoQ despite massive backlog | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TXN Texas Instruments | Maintain competitive lead times Lead times extending 'couple of weeks', first extension in 2 years | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TTMI TTM Technologies | Q2 2026 data center/networking end market expected to represent 42% of net sales Actual mix came in at 40% of Q2 sales despite 91% YoY segment growth; a mix-guidance miss inside an overall revenue beat. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TT Trane Technologies | Residential to be flattish in Q2 Expected flat, delivered low teens growth | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TSLA Tesla | FSD approval in EU by Q2 Only Netherlands approved, EU review pushed to May at earliest | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TER Teradyne | Achieve 55‑60% of FY revenue in H1 Revised down to 50‑52% in Q2 guidance. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TE T1 Energy | We remain on schedule to achieve first cell production in Q4 2026 Timeline pushed out to Q1 2027 per current call, framed as an optimization rather than a miss. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| TE T1 Energy | We continue to target the announcement of the G2 financing in the second quarter Q2 ended with only a bridge convertible note closed, not the comprehensive financing solution originally targeted. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SYK Stryker | Peripheral vascular 'clear sailing in years ahead' Supply disruption created meaningful backorder and lost sales | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| STM STMicroelectronics | Low Earth orbit webcast on May 4th Never mentioned if this actually happened | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SRE Sempra | ECA LNG Phase 1 targeting substantial completion 'this summer' Substantial completion now targeted for Q4 2026 following discovery of compressor equipment damage; the summer target was not met. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SPOT Spotify Technology | Q2 MAU guidance of 778M, +17M from Q1 Actual net additions of 16M were 1M below forecast. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SPGI S&P Global | MI subscription revenue acceleration in Q2 Growth stayed flat at 6% despite 'solid pipeline' commentary | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SPGI S&P Global | Energy returning to 6-8% growth range Lowered guidance to 4.5-6% blaming Iran conflict | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SO Southern | 6GW of late-stage projects to be finalized 'in the near term' Only 3GW now expected near-term. Half the pipeline slipped or died. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SLB Schlumberger | Middle East gradual recovery in Q2 Revenue fell 13% sequentially, worse than guided | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SHW Sherwin-Williams | Open 80-100 new stores in 2026 Now only 30 net stores due to 57 closures. Gross openings on track but net way below | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SHW Sherwin-Williams | Raw material inflation low to mid single digits Raised to mid single digits with H2 at high single digits | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SHAK Shake Shack | Q2 total revenue of $424 million to $428 million Actual Q2 revenue was $417.6M, below the low end of the guided range. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SHAK Shake Shack | Q2 restaurant-level profit margin of 24% to 24.5% Actual RLM was 23.0% of shack sales, 100-150bps below the guided range. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SAP SAP SE | Slight CCB deceleration through 2026 CCB actually accelerated from 25% to 26%, though they're sticking to deceleration forecast | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SAP SAP SE | AI transformation progressing well Admitted AI is only '85-90% accurate' and 'not enough' for mission-critical processes | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SAP SAP SE | Services revenue stabilization Services revenue declined as consultants shifted to AI development | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | FDA decision on EYLEA HD PFS during Q2 Still pending, same language as Q1. FDA didn't act by April PDUFA for second manufacturer | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| RDDT Reddit | Reach 100 million US DAUs US DAUs actually declined sequentially to ~50M, moving away from target | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| RDDT Reddit | Convert weekly users to daily through product improvements WAUs growing faster than DAUs, conversion getting worse not better | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| RBLX Roblox | Full year bookings growth of 8-12% Abandoned entirely, won't even provide Q4 guidance anymore | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| RBLX Roblox | Age check penetration target above 90% At 57% with no timeline to reach 90%, original urgency gone | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings | Expand PayPal Plus loyalty program to additional markets No update on expansion beyond UK despite Q1 commitment | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PSA Public Storage | Continue momentum in third-party management Only 22 properties added, pace is slowing not accelerating | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PI Impinj | Full ASIC conversion before year‑end (Q1) Now pushed to Q3, indicating a delay of several months. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PCG PG&E | Continue rate reductions for customers No incremental rate reduction in Q2, stuck at same 23% reduction cited in Q1 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PARA Paramount Skydance | On track to consolidate three streaming services into one unified platform by the middle of this year Current call reframes the target as completion 'by the end of summer,' a slip of roughly 2-3 months from the original mid-year commitment. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| PARA Paramount Skydance | We remain on track to complete [WBD deal] by September Current call discloses a March trial date and ongoing incremental financing costs 'beyond September 30th,' confirming the September target was not met. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| OTIS Otis Worldwide | Service margins to sequentially improve and return to year-over-year expansion by year-end Margins declined further to 23.2%, now pushing recovery to H2 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| OTIS Otis Worldwide | Retention rates stabilizing Explicitly stated retention declined in Q2 after claiming stabilization in Q1 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NSC Norfolk Southern | Maintain $8.2-8.4B cost guidance despite fuel Abandoned after just one quarter, now $8.8-8.9B | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NSC Norfolk Southern | Refile merger application by end of April Now targeting end of July, 3-month delay | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NOW ServiceNow | Operating margin expansion despite acquisitions Q2 margin at 29.5% vs 32% in Q1, 250bps compression | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NEM Newmont | Cadia full recovery expected by end of Q2 Cave establishment still halted, only at 80% capacity currently | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NEM Newmont | Progressive momentum from Q2 onwards Q3 now guided flat with Q2, not the acceleration they promised | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NDAQ Nasdaq | Verafin to maintain mid-20s growth trajectory Q2 at 22% growth, below the 25% medium-term target despite 'strong momentum' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| NDAQ Nasdaq | Corporate Solutions to benefit from AI adoption Revenue 'essentially flat' in Q1, not even mentioned separately in Q2 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MRNA Moderna | Norovirus data in 2026 Quietly walked back to 'more likely in 2027' after interim fail | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MRK Merck | Otovair investments expected to accelerate growth in the second half of the year and beyond Management now guides Q3 2026 to be negatively impacted by the unwind of Q2 specialty-pharmacy purchases and pushes the acceleration target out to 2027. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MOH Molina Healthcare | Marketplace MCR of 85.5% Raised to 90% due to adverse selection and prior year items | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Diesel impact of $36M in aggregates for the year Now saying $50M company-wide, a 39% increase from Q1 guidance | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Organic COGS per ton below 3% for the year Q2 at 3.6% despite claiming network optimization benefits | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Update guidance at mid-year for New Frontier Did not include NFM in updated guidance despite closing | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Network optimization update at half-year Vaguely mentioned benefits but no specific metrics provided | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Gradual seasonal improvement in new lease rates through Q2 and early Q3 Admitted 'pace is slower than we would like' and July pricing similar to Q2 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| LIN Linde | Margins to increase at upper end or above traditional 40-60bps range for full year 2026 Q2 margins declined 30bps ex-passthrough, making full year target mathematically difficult | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| LIN Linde | Helium to provide incremental upside to guidance Now saying normalization timing uncertain, walking back upside narrative | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| LHX L3Harris Technologies | File S‑1 and spin off missile solutions in 2026 S‑1 filed in Q1 but IPO now pushed to mid‑2027. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| LHX L3Harris Technologies | Deliver 15% organic revenue growth YoY in 2026 Q2 shows 8% YoY; guidance now 8‑10%. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| LBRT Liberty Energy | $1B CapEx for 2026 Blown out to $1.5B, a 50% miss on capital discipline | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| KRC Kilroy Realty | Continue momentum at 201 3rd Street No new major signings mentioned despite being 80%+ leased, momentum appears stalled | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| KKR KKR | $7+ ANI per share for 2026 Walked back mid-year. Now saying 'more likely land below that level' despite Q2 strength. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works | Incremental margins in the mid to high 40s Only 40% due to price-cost issues they didn't anticipate | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works | Meaningful sequential improvement in China auto from Q1 to Q2 China only up 1% in Q2 vs -3% in Q1, not meaningful | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works | Food equipment positive organic growth starting in Q2 Still at 0% organic, pushed to second half | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| IR Ingersoll Rand | PST to operate at mid-single digit organic growth Only 4% organic growth in Q2, below mid-single digit target | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| INTC Intel | Concrete external foundry signals in back half of year Pushed to 2026-2027, no customer announcements despite Q2 promise | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Leverage AI to enhance data utility for clients Launched MCP server but only for non-proprietary data. Proprietary still 'being explored.' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| IBM International Business Machines | Sustain revenue growth of 5% plus for full year Dramatically cut to 4-5% range after Q2 miss | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| IBM International Business Machines | Software to grow 10-plus percent in 2026 Slashed to 6-8% range, massive deceleration | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| HUBS HubSpot | Continue to expect quarterly net additions in the $9,000 to $10,000 range Q2 actual net adds were 7,000, explicitly stated by management as below the 9,000-10,000 expectation. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets | Achieve 40% direct‑deposit attach rate for banking No attach‑rate disclosed in Q2; prior 40% not mentioned, suggesting stagnation or decline. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares | NIM to trend into high 3.20s Came in at 3.21% but now guiding to high 3.20s for full year vs mid-3.30s prior | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners | Mortgage capture rate of 70-80% by year-end Walked back to just 'exceed 70%', removing the 80% target entirely | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GOOGL Alphabet | 2026 CapEx of $175-185B Already raised to $195-205B citing 'acceleration in delivery of capacity' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GLW Corning | Module business to cross 20% operating margin in Q2 Now pushed to Q3 with no firm commitment | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GLW Corning | Carrier to grow mid-single digits Only grew 1% YoY in Q2, massive deceleration from Q1 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GEV GE Vernova | SST delivery to hyperscaler in fall 2026 Pushed to 'later this year', suggesting delays | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies | Free cash flow target $1.6 B for FY2026 (Q1) Q2 free cash flow $68 M; cumulative FY still far below target. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies | Adjusted EBIT margin 15.4‑15.7% FY2026 (Q1) Current margin 14.2% (down 40bps YoY), well below guidance. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| FSLR First Solar | South Carolina finishing facility on track for H2 2026 production Pushed to mid-2027; blamed on 'optimizing launch' but really incorporating CURE | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| FAST Fastenal | Achieve price/cost neutrality by mid-2026 Still 40bps negative in Q2, only improved 10bps QoQ despite aggressive efforts | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| FAST Fastenal | Digital footprint to reach 66% by year-end 2026 Formally lowered target to 63-64%, first major target miss acknowledged | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| FAST Fastenal | Continue FMI device acceleration Signings decelerated from 110/day to 109/day | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| FAST Fastenal | Maintain mid-20s incremental margins at current growth Q2 incremental margin only 21.5%, Florness admitted disappointment | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| F Ford Motor | Share UEV plans with dealers and take customer orders later this year Completely dropped customer order timeline; only mentioned deliveries starting next year | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| F Ford Motor | Return to 55-65 days inventory target Still at 45 days for F-Series; blamed on Novellus but timeline keeps slipping | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ETN Eaton | Maintain aerospace double-digit growth Only 7% organic in Q2, relied on acquisition for total growth | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ES Eversource Energy | File CLMP rate case letter of intent in May Filed full case July 14 instead of letter of intent in May | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ENPH Enphase Energy | 500 originations per week by end of year Still at 200/week with no growth trajectory despite adding installers | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ENPH Enphase Energy | Modest sell-through growth Q2 vs Q1 Sell-through approximately flat, saved only by Europe offsetting US weakness | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ECL Ecolab | Full year EPS growth of 12-15% Quietly lowered to 7-10% growth while emphasizing dollar range | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DXCM DexCom | Global record new patient quarter this quarter Q2 was 'in line with' Q1 record, not a new record despite 15-day and expanded coverage | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DXCM DexCom | Smart Basal broader launch throughout the year Still in pilot with KOLs, no broader launch mentioned | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DOW Dow | $0.30/lb April PE price increase plus $0.20 May increase June settlement was DOWN $0.15/lb; complete reversal of Q1 pricing momentum | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DOV Dover | Climate & sustainability to deliver double-digit organic growth for 2026 Only grew 8% in Q2, massive deceleration from 15% in Q1 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DOV Dover | Midstream compression pickup beginning in second half Zero mention on Q2 call, appears to have been quietly dropped | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DBI Designer Brands | June 9: Q2 total sales flat to slightly up Consolidated sales fell 1.2% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| DBI Designer Brands | June 9 Q&A: Q2 retail sales flat to slightly positive Retail sales fell 2.2% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| D Dominion Energy | Majority of turbines in service by end of 2026 Pushed to end of 2027, a 6-month delay from original timeline | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CWH Camping World Holdings | Reiterating full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $275-325M Cut to $230-270M, a $45M reduction at midpoint | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CWH Camping World Holdings | Costco partnership to provide really good feedback in three months Only 'hundreds' of units vs 3,500-5,000 target; pushed to 'next year' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CSX CSX | Sequential improvement in service metrics throughout Q2 Dwell increased, Trip Plan performance deteriorated per Cory's admission | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CORZ Core Scientific | $30M quarterly SG&A baseline Came in at $36M, though $4M allegedly one-time | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| COIN Coinbase Global | Continue native unit inflows streak Metric completely disappeared from commentary suggesting streak broke | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| COIN Coinbase Global | Would provide annual expense outlook Only discussed restructuring impact, no forward guidance | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CNC Centene | Medicaid membership down 6% year-over-year Now expecting 8-9% decline, 50% worse than promised | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive | North America sequential improvement through balance of year Q2 was worse than Q1; organic sales declined from -1% to -3% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive | Gross margins roughly flat for the year Now guiding to down for the year after being 'up' just last quarter | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CHTR Charter Communications | Positive broadband ARPU for the year Q1 promise abandoned. Now saying 'it'll be close either way' for full year ARPU growth | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CHTR Charter Communications | EBITDA growth for standalone Charter Reversed to expecting 1% decline for full year 2026 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems | China to remain ~13% of revenue Stopped disclosing the metric entirely, suggesting deterioration | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CAT Caterpillar | Q2 2026: "minimal change in construction industries during dealer inventory" CI dealer inventory rose $400M versus a decline a year ago, explicitly flagged as 'higher than we originally anticipated'. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CAN Canaan | May 19, 2026: Q2 revenue of $35-45m Actual $31.862m | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CAL Caleres | June 4: Q2 Brand Portfolio organic growth in low double digits Actual growth 8.2% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| CAL Caleres | June 4: Q2 gross-margin expansion of 345-375 bps Refund-excluded expansion approximately 339 bps from detailed tables; issuer rounds to 340 bps | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BX Blackstone | Expect robust realization activity in second half if Iran conflict resolves Q2 realizations declined to $414M from $448M in Q1 despite improving markets | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BSX Boston Scientific | Watchman full‑year growth mid‑teens (Q1) Q2 guidance cut to flat‑to‑low single‑digit; actual Q2 growth only 4% YoY. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BSX Boston Scientific | Global EP growth ~10% in 2026 (Q1) Q2 now projects flat/decline in H2 and overall 2026 EP flat. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BSX Boston Scientific | Full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS growth 9‑11% (Q1) Now guided to 7‑8%. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BSX Boston Scientific | Operating margin expansion 50‑75 bps FY 2026 (Q1) Now guidance 0‑25 bps. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb | Milvexian AFib readout by end of 2026 Pushed to Q1 2027 due to slower event rates | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb | ADEPT readouts by end of 2026 Delayed to early 2027 citing enrollment quality and slower relapse rates | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BKR Baker Hughes | Middle‑East conflict will resolve by mid‑year enabling full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Q2 still assumes activity unchanged through year‑end; no resolution evident. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BITF Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) | Panther Creek full permitting completion by 'mid-late summer' Period has ended (call is in August); management confirmed the final DEP process is 'taking a few months longer than originally anticipated' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BITF Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) | Moses Lake 10MW expansion option available to exercise at will Management explicitly abandoned the option this quarter rather than exercising it | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BIIB Biogen | Generate >$500 M free cash flow in Q2 Free cash flow came in at $408 M, 19% below the implied target. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BIIB Biogen | Maintain cash > $4 B after acquisition Cash fell to $1.3 B due to the $3.6 B cash outlay. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| BA Boeing | BDS steady margin improvement Went from 3.1% to -0.2% including charges, even ex-charges only 3.5% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AXP American Express | VCE ratio around 44% for full year Raised to 44-45% due to higher reward category spend | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AXP American Express | Marketing flat to up slightly Now guiding +10% in H2, significant increase from original plan | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors | June 9: remaining quarters expected within flat to +2% comp Q2 comp −0.4% | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ARES Ares Management | Hold significant first close for global data center fund this summer Pushed to 'late Q3 and into Q4', clear timeline slip | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| APO Apollo Global Management | Expect Q2 origination to be 'even stronger' than Q1's $71B, with 'a shot' at approaching the $97B all-time record Actual Q2 origination was $74B, modestly above Q1 but far short of the $97B comparison point management itself introduced; the shortfall is partly a function of Broadcom's $35B being excluded from the figure. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AMZN Amazon.com | Tranium 3 shipping start of 2026 Now says 'just started shipping' in Q2, suggests Q1 delay | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices | Q2 2026 non-GAAP opex guidance of approximately $3.3 billion Actual opex came in at $3.4 billion, above the guided figure, continuing a pattern of opex overshooting guidance. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AM Antero Midstream | Gradual EBITDA growth throughout the year Q2 EBITDA of $289M barely above Q1's $288M, not 'gradual growth' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AEP American Electric Power | Wyoming fuel cell June 30 deadline for hyperscaler decision Extended to December 2026 with 'modified protection terms', AEP made concessions | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ADBE Adobe | Traditional stock business decline being managed Completely dropped discussion of stock business after Q1's 'steeper decline than expected' | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies (branded on this call as Excellus/Xelis Technologies) | Q2 2026 gross margin of approximately 43% Actual gross margin was 42.7%, attributed to CS&I mix and higher services costs. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies (branded on this call as Excellus/Xelis Technologies) | Q2 2026 operating expenses of approximately $59 million Actual opex was $60M, above guide due to higher variable compensation. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts | So in Q2, we expect comps to moderate a little bit from Q1, and that's consistent with how we planned earlier in the year. We expect comps in line with our guidance range, so still in that ballpark. Q2 actual: 'the team navigated a volatile demand environment, which contributed to a slight decline in comparable sales'; this is a negative comp, not a moderated-but-positive comp as implied last quarter. | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
| SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure | More streamlined contracting going forward Actually said contracts are taking 'extended period of time to close' this quarter | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
| EQR Equity Residential | Boston seasonal strength Boston outlook 'moderated' due to weather and Cambridge life science funding | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
| AEO American Eagle Outfitters | AE brand improvement through 2026 Guided positive low single digits Q1 but delivered -2%, though they claim recent weeks improving | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |