| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 23, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 23, 2026 | 4/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 17, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | July 25, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | April 17, 2025 | 6/12 | 5 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | January 30, 2025 | 4/12 | 3 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | October 17, 2024 | 8/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | No material cash taxes in 2026 Reaffirmed expectation |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Accelerating commercial pipeline Multiple partnerships announced, though no firm contracts |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Vantage 400MW deployment No update provided, concerning silence |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Power generation beginning late 2027 Pushed to Q4 2027, technically still achievable but concerning |
| Q2'26 | Missed | $1B CapEx for 2026 Blown out to $1.5B, a 50% miss on capital discipline |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Sequential growth in Q2 revenue and profitability Revenue up 16%, EBITDA up 20% sequentially |
| Q1'26 | Pending | No material cash taxes in 2026 Still expecting 25% book rate, minimal cash |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Meaningful frac efficiencies from AI platform 14% reduction in maintenance cost per unit achieved |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $15-20M increased LPI overhead costs Not broken out in Q1 results |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Flat 2026 revenue year-over-year Q1 tracking slightly ahead of flat |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 330MW data center expansion Q4 2027/Q2 2028 Project canceled, though megawatts reallocated |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Deploy 1GW of power by 2029 Raised target to 3GW by 2029 |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Q3: 1GW cumulative power by end of 2027 Expanded target to 3GW by 2029, original target intact |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q3: No significant cash taxes in Q4 Confirmed no material cash taxes paid |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q3: Normal seasonal trends in Q4 Q4 revenue up 10% sequentially, defied normal seasonal decline |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q3: Total 2025 CapEx of $525-550M Actual was $571M, exceeded high end by $21M |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q3: Expecting tax rate of 25% of pretax income Q4 tax rate was 20%, better than guided |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Q3: 500MW generation delivered by end of 2026 Subtly shifted to 'take delivery' language, suggesting installation might lag |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Sand slurry system to reduce costs and improve reliability Successfully field tested, 'consistently exceeding delivery volumes' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Oklo SMRs providing baseload by early 2030s No update on Oklo progress, still talking 2030s timeline |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Maintain strong balance sheet and liquidity through cycles Net debt up $100M in one quarter, cash down to $13M, liquidity cut nearly in half |
| Q3'25 | Missed | $575M CapEx for 2025 Cut to $525-550M, reducing both completions and power spending |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Begin power generation 'sometime in 2026' Still maintaining 2026 but hedging with 'over a period of time' language |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Deploy power generation assets at 3 sites (1 Colorado, 2 Texas) in H2 2025 Pushed to 'gradually in building blocks over years' this quarter, clear timeline regression |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Continue share buyback program opportunistically Zero buybacks in Q2 despite 'depressed' stock price |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Maintain strong balance sheet through cycles Net debt down to $140M, expanded credit facility |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Deploy additional digi capacity in 2025 Still on track but questioning 2026 program |
| Q2'25 | Missed | $700-750M full year EBITDA target Guidance withdrawn entirely due to macro uncertainty |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Power generation delivery beginning Q3 2025 Pushed to 'this fall' with operations now starting Q1 2026, partial slip |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Sequential growth in Q2 revenue and EBITDA Revenue up 7%, EBITDA up 8% sequentially as promised |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Maintain strong balance sheet Net debt increased $15M despite 'fortress balance sheet' rhetoric |
| Q1'25 | Pending | 2025 CapEx approximately $650M total Q1 spent $119M net, on track but flexibility mentioned repeatedly |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Develop differentiated power business IMG acquisition done but no power revenue yet, still pre-revenue |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA $700-750M Q1 run rate of $672M annualized, at low end of range already |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Power generation initial deployments commencing late 2025 Pushed to Q3 2025 for delivery, Q1 2026 for operations, already slipping |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Q1 2025 modest sequential increase in revenue and adjusted EBITDA Revenue +3.5%, EBITDA +8% sequentially, promise kept but 'modest' was accurate |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Q3: Activity 'poised to inflect higher in 2025' Walked back to 'flat lateral footage' for full year 2025 |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Q3: PropX wet sand 'new developments' deployment Zero mention of PropX performance or wet sand in Q4 despite Q3 emphasis |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Q3: 'Healthy free cash flow generation in 2025' Clarified as completions-only FCF, not total company |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Q3: Temporarily reduce deployed fleets by ~5% Likely exceeded 5% given revenue decline and refusal to disclose actual fleet count |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Q3: Beetaloo Basin operations to begin 'next month' Pushed again to 'next month' from current call, suggesting 3-month delay |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Q3: 90% of fleets on natural gas by start of 2025 Reiterated as 'on track' but not yet verified |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Q3: Deploy first digiPrime pumps from LAET in Q3 Confirmed LAET delivered first digiPrime pumps in Q3 |
| Q3'24 | Exceeded | DJ Basin LPI operations commencing First CNG sales achieved in July, ahead of expectation |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Flattish Q3 financial results versus Q2 Revenue -2%, EBITDA -9%, roughly flattish |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Tax expense rate of approximately 24% of pre-tax income Q3 at 23%, tracking to guidance |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Maintain roughly flat deployed fleet count Now reducing fleet count by 5% for first time in 2 years |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Continue delivering on return of capital program Increased buybacks to $39M and raised dividend 14% |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Close to 90% natural gas fleets by year-end Reiterated as on track but pushed to 'start of year' language |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Capital expenditures around high end of range for 2024 Tracking toward $650M with Q4 at $200M, would hit high end |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Second half financial results to mirror first half quarterly cadence Q3 matched Q2 as promised, but Q4 guidance implies much worse than Q1 |
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