| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 2/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 28, 2025 | 7/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | July 29, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | April 29, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | January 29, 2025 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | October 29, 2024 | 7/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 6 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | July 30, 2024 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'24 | April 30, 2024 | 6/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'23 | January 30, 2024 | 6/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'23 | October 24, 2023 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'23 | July 25, 2023 | 5/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'23 | April 25, 2023 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium flags | 2 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Reach $20B annualized run rate by Q4 2026 Now suggesting might hit a quarter early |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Generate significantly more FCF year over year $1.42B in Q2 alone, massive beat |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to see strong demand for Gen AI products Sales nearly doubled, though base unclear |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Carrier to grow mid-single digits Only grew 1% YoY in Q2, massive deceleration from Q1 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Solar to build $2.5B revenue stream by 2028 Upgraded to $3B but profitability timeline removed |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Module business to cross 20% operating margin in Q2 Now pushed to Q3 with no firm commitment |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Continue share buybacks going forward No mention of buybacks executed in Q1 despite commitment |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Optical Communications to continue driving significant growth 36% YoY growth in Q1, secured $18B in hyperscaler commitments |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Internal Springboard plan to add $6.5B incremental sales by end of 2026 Would need ~$5B annualized run rate, currently at $4.35B |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Operating margin target of 20% by 2026 Hit 20.2% in Q4 2025 and maintained in Q1 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Solar to reach $2.5B revenue by 2028 with profitability above corporate average Now saying 'calling exact timing is very hard to do,' confidence declining |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Generate significantly more free cash flow year-over-year in 2026 Q1 FCF of $188M is down 74% from Q4's $732M, not a good start |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Significant free cash flow step up from 2024 $1.72B in 2025, nearly doubled from $818M in 2023 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue share buybacks going forward Confirmed buybacks every quarter since Q2 2024 |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Solar triple run rate by 2027 On track with 62% growth but eating margins |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Display net income $900-950M for full year Achieved $993M, slightly above range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 sales of approximately $4.35B Delivered $4.41B, beat by $60M |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Achieve 20% operating margin by end of 2026 Hit 20.2% in Q4 2025, full year early |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Optical growth to continue from Gen AI products Enterprise grew 58% YoY, though decelerating from 81% prior quarter |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Display net income at high end of $900-950M range Tracking ahead in H1, maintained high-end guidance |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | 20% operating margin by end of 2026 Now expecting to hit 20% in Q4 2025, full year early |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Solar wafer facility online in Q3 Confirmed facility came online in Q3, ramping in Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Continue share buybacks in Q3 Not explicitly confirmed but said 'we expect to continue buying back shares going forward' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q3 EPS of $0.63-$0.67 Hit $0.67 at high end of range |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q3 sales of $4.2 billion Delivered $4.27 billion, beat by $70 million |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Display net income of $900M-$950M for full year Tracking to high end after H1 strength |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Continue share buybacks in Q2 Confirmed continued buybacks but didn't disclose amount |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Solar wafer facility online in back half of year Refined to Q3 online but shipping 'later this year' |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Carrier business to return to growth in 2025 Already showing 16% YoY growth in Q2 |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Accelerate production ramp for new GenAI and solar products in Q2 Confirmed acceleration but eating $0.02-$0.03 in costs |
| Q2'25 | Exceeded | Q2 EPS of $0.55 to $0.59 Delivered $0.60, beat high end of range |
| Q2'25 | Exceeded | Q2 sales of approximately $3.85B Delivered $4.0B, beat by $150M or 4% |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Begin shipping Lumen data center interconnect products in Q1 Confirmed shipping and Lumen deploying. Promise kept. |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Free cash flow to continue improving in 2025 Q1 breakeven is seasonally strong but need to see Q2-Q3 to judge. |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Operating margin to reach 20% by end of 2026 At 18.0% in Q1, down from 18.5% in Q4. Trajectory concerning. |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Carrier business to grow year-over-year in 2025 Q1 up 11% YoY but they're walking back the timing to 'later this year'. |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | Enterprise optical to grow at 25% CAGR through 2027 Already upgraded to 30% CAGR. Q1 growth of 106% YoY massively ahead of target. |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Display to deliver $900-950M net income in 2025 at 25% margin Q1 at $243M tracking to ~$970M annual run rate. On track so far. |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Automotive glass sales to almost triple by 2026 Not mentioned at all this quarter despite being key milestone |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Operating margin of 18.3% in Q3 Delivered 18.5% in Q4, ahead of trajectory |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Launch new solar market access platform No update provided, mentioned only as future milestones to hit |
| Q4'24 | Missed | BEAD momentum starting H2 2025 Quietly pushed to 2026, now saying wasn't in plan until then anyway |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Carrier recovery as purchases approach deployment rates Some YoY growth but explicitly not calling recovery yet |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Display price increases to offset yen weakness Double-digit increases implemented in H2 2024 as promised |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Enterprise 25% CAGR from 2023-2027 Growing 93% YoY in Q4, well ahead of 25% CAGR target |
| Q3'24 | Missed | September investor event to update on Display pricing Event happened but they're still not disclosing specific pricing or hedge details |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Currency-based price adjustments in Display Implemented Q3, customers seeing 'double-digit increases' in H2 |
| Q3'24 | Pending | BEAD program contribution beginning in 2025 Pushed to 'second half of 2025' from 'beginning in 2025' |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Continue share buybacks in Q3 Confirmed buybacks occurred but amount not disclosed |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Heavy-duty truck weakness to continue in H2 Environmental down 11% sequentially as warned |
| Q3'24 | Exceeded | Enterprise business 25% CAGR from 2023-2027 Running at 55% YoY currently, but sustainability questionable |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Q3 EPS of $0.50-0.54 Hit $0.54 at high end of range |
| Q3'24 | Exceeded | Q3 sales of approximately $3.7B Delivered $3.73B, beating guidance midpoint by $30M |
| Q2'24 | Exceeded | Continue to be opportunistic on share repurchases Actually started buying back shares in Q2, first time in years |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Working to improve 2025 hedge coverage Confirmed partial 2025 hedges in place, though at rates worse than 107 |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Maintain CapEx at approximately $1.2B for 2024 Reaffirmed $1.2B target, on track through H1 |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Display utilization to increase in Q2 on midyear promotions Display revenue up 16% sequentially as panel makers increased utilization |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Optical carrier sales to increase from Q1 levels Optical grew 20% sequentially though carrier still down 10% YoY |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Q1 will be the lowest quarter for the year Q2 sales up 11% sequentially to $3.6B, clearly building from Q1 trough |
| Q1'24 | Delivered | Maintain gross margin despite lower sales Gross margin held at 36.8% in Q1 despite lower sequential sales |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Add more than $3B in annualized sales within 3 years Maintaining this target but pushed out some drivers like BEAD |
| Q1'24 | Missed | Life Sciences inventory drawdowns completing Said this in Q4, but Q1 sales still declined 8% YoY as drawdowns continue |
| Q1'24 | Delivered | Display panel maker utilization to increase after Q1 Utilization did increase late Q1 as promised, expecting continuation in Q2 |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Optical Communications to grow 40%+ as inventory normalizes Still claiming this but now admits uptick is 'too small to over-conclude analytically' |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q1 2024 will be the low quarter of the year Made this promise in Q4, now reiterating but Q2 guide of $3.4B is only 4% sequential growth |
| Q4'23 | Delivered | Maintain strong free cash flow conversion FCF improved to $487M in Q4 from $466M in Q3 |
| Q4'23 | Pending | Panel maker utilization to recover in first half of 2024 Refined to 'after first quarter', suggests Q2 at earliest |
| Q4'23 | Missed | BEAD funding to begin early 2024 Delayed to H2 2024, explicitly acknowledged the pushout |
| Q4'23 | Pending | Expect carriers to increase deployments throughout 2024 Pushed timeline, now saying 'not counting on improvements over next six months' |
| Q4'23 | Delivered | Execute double-digit Display price increases in H2 2023 Successfully implemented, reflected in margins despite volume declines |
| Q4'23 | Delivered | Improve gross margin to 37% in Q3 Achieved 37% in Q3 and maintained in Q4 despite lower sales |
| Q3'23 | Exceeded | Free cash flow improvement $466M exceeded expectations, up 50% sequentially |
| Q3'23 | Delivered | Operating based on order book not forward projections Maintained discipline, guided Q4 based on current orders only |
| Q3'23 | Missed | Display volume recovery underway Completely reversed, utilization declined at Q3 exit and Q4 worse |
| Q3'23 | Pending | Continued gross margin improvement despite flat sales Q3 delivered 37% but Q4 guide is 'similar' not higher |
| Q3'23 | Delivered | Double-digit Display price increases in back half Confirmed implementation with margin expansion evidence |
| Q3'23 | Delivered | Display margins to return to pre-pandemic levels exiting Q3 Achieved 25% margin vs 22% prior quarter, back to mid-20s target |
| Q2'23 | Pending | Display profitability improvement from pricing actions Price increases announced but implementation in Q3 |
| Q2'23 | Delivered | Operating margin expansion despite lower sales Operating margin hit 17.5%, up 200 bps sequentially |
| Q2'23 | Delivered | Panel maker utilization to increase significantly in Q2 Volume increased 'significantly' per management confirmation |
| Q2'23 | Delivered | Positive free cash flow starting Q2 Swung from -$383M to +$310M |
| Q2'23 | Exceeded | Gross margin improvement of 1-2 percentage points in Q1 Delivered 160 bps in Q1, then another 100 bps in Q2 |
| Q2'23 | Delivered | Q2 sales growth sequentially led by Display recovery Display up 22% sequentially, drove overall 3% sequential growth |
| Q1'23 | Missed | Free cash flow improvement from inventory normalization FCF turned deeply negative at -$383M, no inventory benefit materialized |
| Q1'23 | Pending | Benefits of Q4 pricing and productivity actions throughout 2023 Early evidence in Q1 margins but needs full year to verify |
| Q1'23 | Missed | Continue to normalize inventory levels Inventory stayed flat, Ed admitted they only managed to avoid building more |
| Q1'23 | Missed | Display recovery underway after bottoming in September Recovery stalled in December, went backwards in January, only resumed in March |
| Q1'23 | Delivered | Q1 sales would decline by greater than normal seasonality Sales down 7% vs normal 5% seasonal decline |
| Q1'23 | Delivered | Margins would increase 1-2 percentage points sequentially despite lower sales Gross margin up 160bps, operating margin up 150bps as promised |
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