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Management credibility scorecard

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 4, 2026
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91%
Kept of 22 resolved
20
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 4, 20269/122 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags41Call sheet →
Q1'26May 5, 202611/125 medium, 3 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25February 3, 20269/12-61Call sheet →
Q3'25November 4, 202510/123 medium, 6 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingClient revenue to grow year over year in 2026 and outperform the market
Fiscal year not ended; management reaffirmed growth expectations and noted the PC market 'held up better than most people would have thought'.
Q2'26PendingLong-term EPS target of more than $20 over the strategic timeframe, with a clear path to exceed it
Multi-year target, not yet due; management raised confidence further this quarter, stating they expect to 'significantly exceed' the $20 target, a revision upward, not a resolution.
Q2'26PendingSecond half 2026 gaming revenue to decline more than 20% versus first half
H2 2026 is only one quarter (Q2 trends: gaming down 31% YoY to $779M) into reporting; full H2 comparison not yet resolvable on this call.
Q2'26PendingHelios production shipments to ramp in the second half of 2026
Period has not ended; management reaffirmed initial shipments begin 'later this quarter' (Q3) with step-ups into Q4 and 2027; on track but not yet realized.
Q2'26DeliveredVenice launch 'later this year' (2026)
Venice is confirmed 'in production now' with OEM platform launches underway, ahead of a full H2 landing.
Q2'26ExceededServer CPU revenue to grow more than 70% YoY in Q2 2026
Management stated cloud and enterprise each grew more than 70% YoY, 'exceeding the outlook we provided last quarter'.
Q2'26MissedQ2 2026 non-GAAP opex guidance of approximately $3.3 billion
Actual opex came in at $3.4 billion, above the guided figure, continuing a pattern of opex overshooting guidance.
Q2'26DeliveredQ2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of approximately 56%
Actual gross margin was 56%, in line with guidance.
Q2'26ExceededQ2 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million
Actual Q2 revenue came in at $11.5 billion, at the very top of the guided range.
Q1'26PendingOpEx leverage as revenue scales
Committed to OpEx growing slower than revenue going forward
Q1'26DeliveredEmbedded return to growth
6% YoY growth Q1 vs 3% Q4 - acceleration delivered
Q1'26PendingVenice launch later in 2026
On track with unprecedented customer validation activity
Q1'26DeliveredClient business outperformance vs market
26% growth in tough environment, commercial >50% growth
Q1'26Delivered$100M China MI308 revenue in Q1
Included in guidance, China revenue now 'not material'
Q1'26ExceededData center segment growth >60% annually
Q1 at 57% YoY with acceleration expected - tracking ahead
Q1'26ExceededStrong server CPU demand continuing
Delivered >50% growth Q1, now guiding >70% Q2 - accelerating
Q1'26PendingMI450 ramp starting second half 2026
On track - began sampling MI450 to lead customers, production ramp H2
Q4'25ExceededStrong free cash flow generation
$2.1B vs $1.5B in Q3
Q4'25DeliveredContinued OpEx investment in AI roadmap
OpEx up $200M to $3B, 42% YoY growth maintained
Q4'25DeliveredEmbedded segment return to growth in Q4
Up 3% YoY after declines
Q4'25DeliveredFourth consecutive record desktop CPU quarter
Desktop CPU sales set record again
Q4'25MissedNo MI308 China revenue in Q4 guide
Actually delivered $390M in Q4 that wasn't guided
Q4'25ExceededStrong Q4 data center performance in both server and AI
Both segments grew double-digit sequentially
Q4'25DeliveredMI355 sharp ramp into Q4 2025
$5.4B data center revenue, up 24% sequentially
Q3'25DeliveredQ3 gross margin approximately 54%
Delivered exactly 54% despite MI350 ramp
Q3'25DeliveredEmbedded would return to sequential growth in Q3
Up 4% sequentially after prior declines
Q3'25DeliveredClient business sequential growth in Q3
Client revenue increased 10% sequentially as guided
Q3'25PendingWould resume MI308 shipments as licenses approved
Received some licenses but still no revenue guidance, demand uncertainty emerged
Q3'25ExceededData center revenue would grow double-digit sequentially in Q3
Grew 34% sequentially, well above double-digit guidance
Q3'25DeliveredMI355 would ramp in Q3 with strong customer adoption
Multiple deployments underway with large cloud providers, exceeded expectations
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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