| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | May 26, 2026 | 3/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | 2026-03-03 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | December 9, 2025 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2025-09-23 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-05-27 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Missed | International same store sales to improve Deteriorated to 1.6% from 2.5% last quarter |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Manage SG&A in line with sales growth over time SG&A grew 7.6% versus sales growth of 8.4%, but still close |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Gross margin to benefit from merchandise margins Gross margin down 57 bps even excluding LIFO; merchandise margin benefits didn't materialize |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Commercial business growing share in meaningful way 10.4% growth suggests share gains but still no actual share data |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect to open 350 to 360 stores for full year On track at 365 but needs 160 stores in Q4 versus 141 last year |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Q3 to open 90 to 95 stores globally Only opened 82 stores, fell short of guided range |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Planning interest expense in $114M range for Q2 Actual interest expense was $107M, better than guided |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 store openings of 65-70 stores globally Opened 64 stores, within guidance range |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Merchandise margins to help offset rate headwind from accelerated commercial growth Gross margin improved 66 bps year-over-year comparison excluding LIFO |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to expect average ticket to grow sequentially through third fiscal quarter DIY ticket up 5.2% vs 4.8% last quarter, continuing sequential growth |
| Q2'26 | Missed | SG&A to grow similar to first quarter as new stores impact costs SG&A per store actually decelerated from 5.8% to 3.9%, showing more cost discipline than projected |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expected to open at least 30 Mega Hub locations over fiscal year Opened 4 in Q1, 5 in Q2 = 9 total. Need 21+ more, pace seems adequate |
| Q1'26 | Missed | We'll manage expenses in line with sales growth over time SG&A growing 200+ bps faster than sales growth |
| Q1'26 | Missed | SG&A to grow in the mid-single-digit ZIP code Grew 10.4% in Q1, well above mid-single-digit range |
| Q1'26 | Missed | CapEx of approximately $1.5 billion Raised to $1.6B - 7% increase from original guidance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We expect to open 325 to 350 stores in The Americas in FY '26 Updated to 350-360 stores globally - effectively raised guidance |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | We expect to continue being an incredibly strong cash flow generator Generated $630M vs $511M in Q4 - delivered on promise |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We expect to open 25 to 30 mega hub locations over the next fiscal year Opened 4 in Q1, on pace for ~16 annually - may miss low end of range |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Currently, we expect [tariff mitigation] actions to offset any Q4 tariff costs Took massive $80M LIFO charge driven by tariffs. Mitigation efforts clearly fell short. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We expect no [LIFO] credits in Q4 of this year Took $80M LIFO charge instead of credit, consistent with guidance for no credits. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We anticipate that the headwinds from [new] U.S. distribution centers will largely abate in Q4 Gross margin improved on ex-LIFO basis, suggesting DC ramp headwinds did abate as promised. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | We expect to open around 100 international stores this fiscal year Opened 109 international stores versus 'around 100' target. Beat commitment by 9%. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We expect both DIY and commercial trends to remain solid as our comparisons become slightly easier DIY comp was 2.2% (solid), commercial accelerated to 12.5%. Delivered on both fronts. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | We expect to open at least 10 more MegaHub locations over the next quarter (Q4) Opened 14 mega hubs in Q4 versus promised 10 minimum. Delivered ahead of commitment. |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Manage expenses in line with sales growth over time (Q2) SG&A deleverage improved to 108 bps from 134 bps but still deleveraging - progress but not delivered |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Gross margin headwinds will largely abate in Q4 (Q2) Now expect Q4 margins 'down slightly' vs prior implication of recovery |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Accelerate store opening pace in back half (Q2) Opened 84 total stores (54 domestic, 30 international) vs 45 in Q2 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Around 100 international stores this fiscal year (Q2) 58 opened YTD, need 42 more in Q4 - reaffirmed guidance |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Open at least 19 more MegaHubs over next 2 quarters (Q2) Opened 8 in Q3, expect 10+ in Q4 - on track but not complete |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Both DIY and commercial trends to remain solid as comparisons become easier (Q2) DIY comp went from 0.1% to 3.0%, commercial from 7.3% to 10.7% - solid acceleration delivered |
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