| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 30, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain FRE margins above 65% Hit 70% in Q2, 10 straight quarters above 65%. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Build Arctos to $100B+ AUM Just closed at $20B. Long road ahead but early momentum good. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Insurance ROE improvement through cycle Still seeing competition. Operating earnings at $288M but would be $300M+ with marks. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to exceed fundraising targets Raised $305B since 2024 start, beating 3-year $300B target in 2.5 years. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $350M+ strategic holdings operating earnings for 2026 Reaffirmed but added 'back-end weighted' qualifier. Only at $37M in Q2. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | $7+ ANI per share for 2026 Walked back mid-year. Now saying 'more likely land below that level' despite Q2 strength. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued dividend increases Raised to $0.78 from $0.74, seventh consecutive year |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Insurance operating earnings in $250M+ per quarter range $260M reported, $300M+ on mark-to-market basis |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | FRE per share growth exceeding targets $1.13 vs guidance, up 23% YoY with strong momentum |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $350M+ Strategic Holdings operating earnings for 2026 Reaffirmed and suggested they'll beat this number |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Meaningfully exceed fundraising targets Raised $28B in Q1, on track to exceed $300B+ 2024-2026 target early |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $7-plus per share adjusted net income for 2026 assuming constructive environment Downgraded to 'more likely below $7' but still possible. Key promise now hedged. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued management fee growth driven by fundraising momentum 24% YoY growth in Q4, accelerating from 19% in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Insurance operating earnings $250M+ per quarter run rate Q4 at $268M, maintained guidance despite mix shift to alternatives |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | $300+ billion fundraising target 2024-2026 Already raised $240B+ or 80% of target with two years remaining |
| Q4'25 | Pending | $7-8 ANI per share for 2026 Still confident in $7+ but added environment qualifier for first time |
| Q4'25 | Pending | $4.50 plus FRE per share for 2026 High confidence, expect to 'meaningfully exceed' target |
| Q4'25 | Pending | $350-plus million of net dividends for Strategic Holdings in 2026 Tracking nicely towards target, Rob expects to 'beat that number' |
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