| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 30, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 5/12 | 5 high, 3 medium flags | 1 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 26, 2026 | 6/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 30, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | July 31, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | May 1, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | February 27, 2025 | 3/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | October 31, 2024 | 6/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | August 1, 2024 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Land development outflows of $420M for 2026 Raised to $450M this quarter, suggesting cost overruns |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Land acquisitions of approximately $400M for 2026 YTD at $166M, needs $234M in H2 to hit target |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Community count to increase in second half of year Language softened to 'towards the end of this year', suggesting H2 promise at risk |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Roll out mortgage to Providence Group in latter part of 2026 Still claiming 'latter part of 2026' timeline, unchanged |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Mortgage capture rate of 70-80% by year-end Walked back to just 'exceed 70%', removing the 80% target entirely |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Maintain sales pace despite market challenges Sales pace declined to 3.4/month from 3.5 despite adding incentives |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Continue to increase community count by end of 2025 Ended at 103 average vs 101 prior, essentially flat |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Houston first community opening in spring 2026 Opened in Q1 as promised |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Mortgage capture rate of 75% to 85% by year-end Already walked back to 70% to 80% range |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Green Brick Mortgage to Atlanta by middle of year Pushed to 'latter part of 2026', clear 6-month delay |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Complete Green Brick Mortgage rollout to all DFW communities by end of Q1 2026 Claimed completion but no specific metrics on actual penetration achieved |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Sustain return metrics that rank among the very best ROE declining with 24.5% drop in net income |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Houston first community by spring selling season Model construction started October, still targeting spring 2026 opening |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to reduce construction costs and cycle times Cycle times down 20 days YoY to 130 days |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintain one of the lowest cancellation rates 7.6% remains among best in industry, though up from 6.7% in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | $300M in land development spending for 2025 Actually spent $323M, slightly over target |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Green Brick Mortgage expansion to Austin, Atlanta, and Houston Austin happened Q1 2026 as promised. Houston and Atlanta still pending for 'spring 2026' and 'middle part of this year' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Maintain 30%+ gross margins But only due to $4.8M warranty reversal; underlying margin is 30.2% |
| Q3'25 | Pending | $300M land development spending for 2025 On track with $233M YTD, but that's before Q4 seasonality |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Trophy in Austin to basically double from where it was this year Mentioned in Q2, needs to be tracked for 2026 delivery |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Green Brick Mortgage expansion to Austin, Atlanta, Houston Now saying 'later this year and early next year' vs prior definitiveness |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Continuing to reduce costs by ~$4,000 per home Only achieved $2,250 reduction, 44% below prior quarter claim |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Houston grand opening planned this fall Pushed to spring 2026 selling season, a 6-month delay |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Continue focus on optimizing SG&A SG&A increased 40 bps as percentage of revenue despite efficiency claims |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Green Brick Mortgage expansion to Austin, Atlanta, Houston Reaffirmed but timeline pushed to 'later this year and early next year' |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Maintain homebuilding gross margins above 30% Barely held at 30.4% but ninth consecutive quarter above threshold |
| Q2'25 | Pending | $300 million land development spending for 2025 On track at $139M YTD, reaffirmed full year target |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Houston Trophy launch with June lot delivery Pushed to August model start, no mention of June lot delivery achievement |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Green Brick Mortgage to contribute meaningful net income in latter half of 2025 Still claiming future contribution but shifted to vague 'service' language |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Continue share buybacks $38.3M repurchased through April, aggressive pace |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Expand geographic footprint through Trophy Houston delayed, no mention of other new markets |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Trophy to drive growth Only 15% order growth vs 54% of deliveries, clearly not driving growth |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Maintain 30%+ gross margins 31.2% still above 30% but down 220bps YoY |
| Q1'25 | Pending | $300M land development spend in 2025 $62M spent in Q1, on track at ~20% through year |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Green Brick Mortgage to contribute meaningful net income in H2 2025 100 loans closed but no profit yet; timeline unchanged suggests challenges |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Trophy to open first Houston community this fall Unchanged from Q4, suggesting 3-month delay from original summer target |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Deliver approximately 4,600 finished lots by year end Claimed 4,800 finished lots at year end, slightly ahead of plan |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Expand community count Flat at 106 communities Q3 to Q4 despite claiming 19% YoY growth |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Maintain gross margins above 30% 33.8% for full year, though Q4 includes warranty reversal boost |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Continue 20%+ home start growth Started 22% more homes in 2024 vs 2023, 4,067 total starts |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Trophy Houston launch timeframe in first quarter Quietly pushed to 'this fall' for first sales, 6-9 month delay |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Meet $700M land acquisition and development spend target for 2024 Confirmed $375M acquisition, over $200M development, on track for $700M total |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Launch mortgage company in Q1 2025 Prior JV stopped taking applications Q4, new company not operational until Q1, creating gap |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Focus on infill and infill-adjacent markets Still 80%+ of revenue from these submarkets |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Continue expanding community count 106 communities, up 23% YoY, though growth rate stable not accelerating |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Maintain 30%+ gross margins 32.7% in Q3, but down 180bps sequentially and trend concerning |
| Q3'24 | Pending | $700M land acquisition and development spend for 2024 On track with $514M YTD, but forcing deployment regardless of market |
| Q3'24 | Pending | ASP to be $540K-$560K for second half of year Q3 at $547K within range, but Q4 guidance maintained suggests further pressure |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Launch Green Brick Mortgage to capture 100% of mortgage profits beginning of 2025 Pushed to Q1 2025, now just 'estimated launch timeframe' |
| Q2'24 | Exceeded | Maintain investment-grade balance sheet metrics Debt/capital improved to 17.7% from 18.3%, net debt/capital at 10.9% |
| Q2'24 | Revised | 5,100 finished lots expected by end of 2024 Now guiding to 4,700 finished lots, 400 lot reduction |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Continue growing Trophy in Austin and Houston markets Austin at 2,000+ lots (doubled YoY), Houston added 460-lot acquisition, building local team |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Ramp up spending to $700M for land/development in 2024 YTD at $300M+, explicitly 'on track' for $700M target |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | ASP to range from $540K-$560K for balance of year Q2 at $554K within range, reaffirmed for H2 |
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