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Management credibility scorecard

Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call July 28, 2026
Get the next ITW call sheet
82%
Kept of 17 resolved
14
Kept or exceeded
3
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26July 28, 20265/121 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags23Call sheet →
Q1'26April 30, 20269/122 medium, 4 low flags10Call sheet →
Q4'25February 3, 202611/12-60Call sheet →
Q3'25October 24, 20259/123 medium, 3 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26ExceededCBI improvement in 2026
3% in first half vs 2.4% full year 2025
Q2'26DeliveredTest & measurement margin improvement
240bp improvement to 25.2%
Q2'26MissedFood equipment positive organic growth starting in Q2
Still at 0% organic, pushed to second half
Q2'26MissedMeaningful sequential improvement in China auto from Q1 to Q2
China only up 1% in Q2 vs -3% in Q1, not meaningful
Q2'26MissedIncremental margins in the mid to high 40s
Only 40% due to price-cost issues they didn't anticipate
Q2'26PendingOperating margin improvement of approximately 100 basis points for full year
On track with 60bp in Q1, 40bp in Q2 despite price-cost headwind
Q2'26PendingAll seven segments to deliver positive organic growth in 2026
Food equipment still at 0%, specialty not disclosed separately
Q1'26PendingCBI contribution to accelerate in 2026
Language became vaguer, no specific yield number provided
Q1'26DeliveredMid to high-40s incremental margins
Q1 incrementals ~40%, expect sequential improvement
Q1'26PendingEvery segment will improve margins in 2026
Q1 results mixed but they reiterated this commitment
Q1'26PendingOrganic growth 1-3% for full year
Q1 at 0.4% but management says April trending toward 'high end of range'
Q1'26PendingOperating margin expansion of ~100bps to 26.5-27.5% range
Q1 at 25.4% suggests back-half weighted improvement needed
Q1'26PendingAll seven segments to show positive organic growth in 2026
Q1 had Automotive and Food Equipment negative, though they maintain this will turn positive
Q4'25DeliveredAll seven segments expanding operating margins in Q4
Every segment delivered margin expansion between 80-210 basis points
Q4'25DeliveredEPS guidance midpoint of $10.45 (raised $0.10 last quarter)
Narrowed range to $10.40-$10.50, tracking to midpoint
Q4'25DeliveredTariff-related pricing actions will more than offset tariff costs
Price-cost was positive in Q4, both dollar and margin impact
Q4'25ExceededEnterprise initiatives contributing 125 basis points to full year operating margins
Delivered 140bps in Q4, consistent throughout year
Q4'25DeliveredTest & Measurement margins and revenues to improve meaningfully in Q4
Revenue up 6%, margins at 28.1% with 110bps improvement
Q4'25ExceededAuto OEM margins to low-to-mid 20s by 2026
Hit 21.8% in Q4 2025, already in target range a year early
Q3'25DeliveredFree cash flow conversion 100%+ for full year
Q3 at 110% conversion, well on track
Q3'25DeliveredAutomotive OEM outperform builds by 200-300 bps
Maintaining guidance with updated build forecasts
Q3'25DeliveredPricing actions will more than offset tariff costs
Confirmed both EPS and margin positive impact
Q3'25DeliveredTest & Measurement margins to recover to mid-to-high 20s in second half
Achieved 25.4% in Q3, 25.9% excluding restructuring
Q3'25ExceededEnterprise initiatives 100+ basis points full year (Q2)
Now guiding 125 bps vs 100+ originally
Q3'25PendingSecond half organic growth of 2% to 3% (implied from Q2)
Q3 delivered 1% organic, need strong Q4 to hit range
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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