| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 23, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 23, 2026 | 11/12 | 2 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 6, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Florida CMS implementation in Q4 On track per management commentary |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Medical cost trend in Medicaid at 5% Explicitly stated as consistent with full year guidance |
| Q2'26 | Pending | G&A ratio of 6.4% for full year Q2 at 6.5%, full year unchanged |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Premium revenue of approximately $42 billion Unchanged and tracking to plan |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Marketplace MCR of 85.5% Raised to 90% due to adverse selection and prior year items |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Medicare MCR of 94% for full year Lowered to 92.2% on duals outperformance |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medicaid MCR of 92.9% for full year Q2 at 92.7% tracking in-line, reaffirmed for full year |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Full year 2026 EPS guidance of at least $5 Raised to $5.25, though only due to Medicaid outperformance offsetting marketplace disaster |
| Q1'26 | Pending | MAPD product exit for 2027 Still exploring strategic transfer options before termination |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Florida CMS contract implementation for Q4 2026 On track with full implementation mode underway |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Marketplace exposure reduction 305K Q1 membership vs 650K prior year, 70% renewal mix achieved |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Medicare transition to integrated products 80K members transitioned successfully, performing better than expected |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Medicaid cost trend would not have 2025 acuity shift impact Q1 results support this with low/no utilizers at record lows |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5 Reaffirmed despite Q1 beat, using 'at least' language |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 2026 premium revenue approximately $42 billion Reaffirmed despite membership mix changes |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Harvest some portion of $8.65 embedded earnings in 2026 Harvesting $0.60 net in 2026, though Florida adds $4.50 to total |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Georgia and Texas contracts expected to go live in 2026 Now delayed to 2027, not included in 2026 revenue guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | States moving in the right direction on rates Still claiming state progress but 2026 rates disappointed vs Q3 expectations |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Rates modestly in excess of trend for 2026 Final rates fell short - now 4% rates vs 5% trend, 100bp shortfall |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Medicare and Marketplace projected to at least break even Medicare now $1/share headwind, Marketplace break-even at best on much lower volume |
| Q4'25 | Missed | 2026 outlook likely approximates $14 per share Delivered 'at least $5' guidance - massive 64% cut from Q3 outlook |
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