| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 14, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 15, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 15, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 6 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 15, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | If over time it's clear that the margin hurdle is not enough and we want to take it up, we'll do that... that's something we're going to want to give a real consideration to... That's something that would be addressed at the end of the year. Year-end review remains pending. Q3 margin of 30.4% versus 30.5% and the scale commentary do not establish that the review was cancelled. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We continue to expect our annual tax rate to be between 22% and 23%. Annual period remains incomplete. Quarterly rates may vary. Q3 was 23.3%, and Q4 was expected slightly above that, with annual guidance unchanged. Evaluate the full-year weighted calculation before alleging a miss. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | For the third quarter, we expect a modest sequential increase in NII. NII actually declined sequentially to $2.2 billion from $2.3 billion, explicitly described as 'down modestly'. This is a clean guidance miss on a metric with a defined quarter-end deadline. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q1: 'We'll continue to invest strategically across the firm' Tech spend increasing per commentary, though no numbers |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q1: 'Investment banking pipelines remain steady' IB revenue up 14% QoQ to $2.4B |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q1: 'Fee-based flows generating $54B record' Dropped to $39B in Q2, -28% sequential |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q1: 'Global activity is building' Asia equities revenue surge validates this call |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: 'Sponsor monetization is gaining momentum' Added 'selectively' qualifier, suggesting narrower opportunity than promised |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q1: 'We expect NII to build over the course of the year' Now just 'modest' Q3 increase, clearly backing off full-year build |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Efficiency ratio target of 70% or better Delivered 65% efficiency ratio in Q1, well below 70% target. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue to opportunistically buy back stock Bought back $1.75B in Q1 vs $1.5B in Q4, increased pace. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Prudent dividend growth comes first Raised quarterly dividend 7.5 cents for fourth year in a row to $1.00 per share. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue to invest strategically across the firm Closed EquityZen acquisition, launched digital asset pilot, moved forward with bank reorg. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | NII to remain roughly flat quarter over quarter in Q1 NII increased to $2.2B in Q1 vs $2.1B in Q4, so it actually grew rather than stayed flat. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Expect our 2026 tax rate to be between 22% and 23% Q1 came in at 19.6% due to timing, but they reaffirmed full-year 22-23% guidance. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Operating leverage demonstration if markets remained constructive Efficiency ratio improved to 68.4%, wealth margins hit 31.4% |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Workplace asset migration continuing above historical $60B average Hit $99B full year, 65% above historical average |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued fee-based flow strength above $40B quarterly Third consecutive quarter above $40B, described as 'industry first' |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 'Strong pipelines' in investment banking would translate to activity IB revenues up 47% YoY to $2.4B, advisory crossed $1B milestone |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 tax rate expected to be 'approximately 24%' Q4 tax rate was 23.2%, close to 24% guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 NII expected to see 'modest sequential gain' from Q3 levels NII grew from $2.0B to $2.1B, meeting guidance for modest increase |
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