| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 29, 2026 | 4/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 3/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 29, 2025 | 3/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | July 30, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | April 23, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | February 5, 2025 | 4/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | October 23, 2024 | 5/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | July 24, 2024 | 5/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Maintain healthy channel inventory (Q1) Inventory rose QoQ, suggesting inventory burn did not occur as expected. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Solutions revenue to begin contributing this year (Q1) Management still calls solutions "early days"; no dollar impact disclosed. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | M800 ramp will lift product gross margin by ~100 bps (Q1) Product margin rose 120 bps QoQ, matching guidance. |
| Q2'26 | Partial | Retail rebuys after destocking will drive Q2 growth (Q1) Retail apparel contributed to volume but growth pace slowed; not the primary driver of record revenue. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Full ASIC conversion before year‑end (Q1) Now pushed to Q3, indicating a delay of several months. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Custom ASIC volumes to more than double in Q2 (Q1 statement) Management said ramp "ahead of schedule" and shipped record volumes; no exact numbers disclosed but qualitative claim met. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | European grocer progressing to store pilot Still waiting for decision despite meeting targets, clear delay |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Food ramp through 2026 led by bakery Still talking about future ramp, no evidence of current acceleration |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Gen2X as essential toolkit for enterprise solutions Downgraded to incremental improvements, no major wins disclosed |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Bakery rollout to double deployed stores this year Still claiming on track but volumes remain 'modest' |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Apparel demand normalizing as soon as Q2 They're predicting Q2 recovery but language softened from 'normalizing' to just 'increase' |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Custom IC for logistics customer to fully switch this year On track so far with volumes doubling in Q2, but full conversion still ahead |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Gross margin leverage in Q4 54.5% vs 53% in Q3, though aided by NRE revenue not core business |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Gen2X driving share gains No share data provided; deferred measurement to 'February, March timeframe' |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Inventory corrections contained to one quarter Already hedging: 'may spill over into the second quarter' |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Systems revenue to grow in Q4 Actually declined 2% sequentially, blamed on 'project timing' |
| Q4'25 | Pending | M800 to become volume runner Claims it will happen in Q4 but 'terminal mix' now pushed to 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Food volumes to be modest this year and first part of next Pushed out to H2'26; 'modest through first half' is 3-6 months later than promised |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue to see gross margin benefit from M800 and lower-cost wafers in Q3 and Q4 Guiding 100+ bps gross margin improvement in Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Modest food volumes through first half '26 and accelerating from there Pushed timeline, now saying 'modest through first part of next' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | M800 to achieve volume runner status at some point this year Now saying Q4 for volume runner status |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Third quarter product gross margin to increase sequentially Product gross margin up 40 bps sequentially |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Third quarter systems revenue to increase sequentially Systems revenue up 30% sequentially to $17.3M |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Third quarter endpoint IC product revenue to increase sequentially, in line with typical seasonality Revenue grew 12% sequentially ex-licensing but called it 'low end of typical seasonal growth' |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Geographic shift represents 15% of endpoint ICs Confirmed ongoing but impact contained as predicted |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Two large grocery chains moving forward No mention of these specific accounts, just general food commentary |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Product gross margins benefit from M800 in second half Seeing 'some benefit' but the full 300bps still not achieved |
| Q2'25 | Pending | M800 to achieve volume runner status sometime in 2025 Still saying 'at some point this year' but not there yet |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Q2 systems revenue to decline sequentially Actually grew 2% sequentially to $13.3M, beat their own guidance |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Q2 endpoint IC product revenue to increase sequentially Product revenue grew 12% sequentially excluding licensing |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Gen2X driving share gains and demand 44% coverage improvement cited. One concrete win with apparel retailer |
| Q1'25 | Pending | M800 ramp with gross margin benefit Still talking about future benefits. No evidence of margin expansion yet |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Accelerate out of disappointing Q1 Q2 guide suggests stabilization not acceleration. Organic growth only 4% |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Second large logistics customer modest growth in 2025 No mention of growth. Just 'continuing to support them' |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Two large grocery chains with potential 2026 ramp Still mentioned but timeline getting vaguer. Now 'early days' and need 'a lot of work' |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Help partners clear a few weeks of inventory in Q1 Only cleared one week. Partners now maintaining elevated levels permanently |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | E-family adoption continuing across broad RAIN market Order book described as 'strong across all large partners' |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Continue investing in enterprise solutions including software and cloud No specific metrics on investment levels or returns |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Food opportunity showing meaningful volumes in 2025 Pushed to 'may ramp in 2026' |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Expect fourth quarter endpoint IC revenue to decline on favorable side of normal seasonality Declined 9% sequentially, worse than guided 'modest' decline |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Fourth quarter Systems revenue to increase sequentially Systems revenue grew 23% sequentially to $17.5M |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Continued M800 adoption as more inlays achieve market qualification M800 shipments more than doubled for third consecutive quarter |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Free cash flow normalization in second half FCF dropped to $4.7M as warned due to working capital normalization |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Continued endpoint IC product revenue growth in Q3 Product revenue grew 9% sequentially excluding licensing |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Systems recovery with Q3 sequential growth Systems grew 9% sequentially to $14.2M as promised |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Authentication as 'absolutely necessary' for consumer adoption Admitted adoption 'slower than originally hoped' and needs to 'redouble efforts' |
| Q3'24 | Missed | 200mm wafer transition 'mostly finished before Q4' Completely dropped from discussion without explanation or update |
| Q3'24 | Pending | M800 ramp would drive 'additional leverage in the future' Still claiming future leverage but now admits no visible margin impact despite volume tripling |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Q2 gross margin to increase Total margin up to 58.2% but product margin actually declined |
| Q2'24 | Pending | European retailer to add additional brands through end of 2024 On track but gateway revenue described as 'modest' |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Second logistics customer to increase label consumption in 2024 Still committed but now deferring to customer's own timeline statements |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | E-family shipments to accelerate in Q2 Volumes strong but revenue impact masked by Indy IC wind-down |
| Q2'24 | Exceeded | Second quarter endpoint IC product revenue to increase sequentially Grew 21% sequentially excluding licensing, well above normal 15% seasonality |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | M800 volumes to double in Q2 Volumes more than doubled but from an admittedly small base |
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