| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | August 27, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | May 7, 2026 | 5/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | February 5, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | November 7, 2025 | 8/12 | 4 high, 2 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | August 28, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | May 14, 2025 | 7/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | February 12, 2025 | 7/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | November 27, 2024 | 4/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | August 28, 2024 | 7/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Missed | Raise $2.6 B cash by end‑Q3 2026 Cash at June 30 was $7.6 B, but $1.7 B is restricted; free cash remained negative. No evidence of net cash increase matching promise. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Continue to progress GPU, data center, and corporate-level financing NVIDIA deal and investment provides validation, though terms not fully disclosed |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 140,000 GPUs by end of 2026 Raised to 150,000 but depends on securing contracts for 50,000 uncontracted units |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Sweetwater energization in Q2 Substation energized but only mentioned for 200MW initial phase, not full capacity |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | 95% of Microsoft GPU CapEx funded Confirmed via prepayments and financing, though that remaining 5% is still ~$290M |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Microsoft initial revenues commencing Q2 Quietly pushed to Q3 2026 ('Microsoft handoff in Q3'). One quarter delay |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Reach $3.4 billion ARR by end of 2026 Raised to $3.7B this quarter, but timeline unchanged. Still heavily dependent on uncontracted capacity |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Prince George reaching $500M ARR Now 'just under $0.5 billion' contracted |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Sweetwater 1 energization April 2026 Maintained timeline, 100+ workers on site |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Microsoft initial revenues in Q2 Pushed to 'expect Q2', adding hedging language |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $3.4 billion ARR by end of 2026 Maintained target but path unclear without GPU purchases |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 140,000 GPUs by end of 2026 Reiterated but 40,000 GPU purchase not started |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Raise 'at least $2.5 billion' in secured GPU financing Delivered $3.6B, significantly beat target |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Approaching $1.25B annualized revenue Q1 revenue of $240M annualizes to $960M, fell short |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Scaling to 60,000-80,000 potential GPUs Now targeting 140,000 GPUs, nearly doubled ambition |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Sweetwater 1 energization April 2026 Maintained timeline, construction photos support progress |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Horizon 1 on track for Q4 2025 Reiterated on schedule but now adding Tier 3 specs, suggesting scope creep |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $200-250M annualized AI cloud revenue by December 2025 No revenue disclosure this quarter, concerning omission |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 10,000+ GPUs online or being commissioned in coming months Now at 23,000 GPUs, exceeded by 130% |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Sweetwater energization April 2026 Maintaining timeline, long lead equipment on order |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Continue delivering 50MW monthly of data centers Quietly dropped this aggressive expansion pace without explanation |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Near-term milestones all on track Vague promise but GPU utilization metrics disappeared and no Horizon customer signed |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Transition to US domestic issuer July 1 Completed transition to US GAAP reporting as promised |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Horizon 1 delivery Q4 2025 Still claiming on track but no customer announced with weeks to go |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 50 exahash installed capacity by June 30 Actually hit 50 EH as promised, one of the few concrete deliverables met |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Transition to U.S. GAAP by July 1, 2025 Reiterated timeline, on track |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Meaningful dialogue with AI customers Still just dialogue, no contracts three months later |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Not reliant on equity issuance to grow Issued $218M via ATM already with more likely coming |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Horizon 1 delivery in H2 2025 Now specified as Q4 2025, still tracking |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Sweetwater 2 development with 600MW by 2028 Completely dropped from discussion, likely dead |
| Q3'25 | Missed | 52 exahash by end of fiscal year Reduced to 50 exahash, cutting 4% of planned capacity |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Sweetwater negotiations with hyperscalers Terminated Morgan Stanley process, now pursuing different strategy |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Alternative funding beyond ATM Completed convertible but now established $1B ATM anyway |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | 31 exahash by end of Q2 Achieved as promised, last miners arriving within 7 days |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Potential investor distributions in 2025 Explicitly deferred despite strong cash generation to fund Horizon 1 |
| Q2'25 | Pending | U.S. domestic issuer status in 2025 Pushed to H2 2025 for GAAP reporting, was targeting H1 |
| Q2'25 | Pending | 50 exahash in first half 2025 (accelerated from H2) On track per management but now only to 52 total vs 57 previously |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Provide updates on Morgan Stanley AI monetization process No concrete progress disclosed, just vague 'continues to play out' |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Redeploy Poolside capacity in swift order Still looking for customers; acknowledged 'may take time' |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Continue month-on-month AI revenue growth Q1 revenue flat to down from Q4 run rate |
| Q1'25 | Pending | 510 MW energized data centers by December No update provided; metric suspiciously absent |
| Q1'25 | Pending | 30 exahash by end of December 2024 Reiterated as 31 exahash, weeks away |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | 20 exahash by end of September 2024 Hit 21 exahash, ahead of guidance |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Pathway to 40 exahash in first half 2025 Downgraded from firm commitment to 'options' |
| Q4'24 | Pending | 510MW of data centers by end of December At 300MW now, needs 210MW in 4 months |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Continue to assess opportunity to grow GPU fleet Zero new GPU purchases, actually backing away from growth |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | GPU pilot at Childress in second half But only 16 GPUs, far smaller than implied |
| Q4'24 | Pending | 30 exahash by end of 2024 Reiterated but requires doubling current capacity in 4 months |
| Q4'24 | Pending | 20 exahash by end of Q3 2024 (September) Currently at 15 exahash, needs 5 more in one month |
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