| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 5, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 7, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 26, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-10-30 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Loyalty platform launch towards the end of 2026 Timeline reaffirmed for 2026 this quarter, but management lowered expectations on revenue contribution. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $230 million to $245 million Period has not ended; management now references a lower $225-235M range tied to a mid-quarter June update and is guiding to the low end of that range, a revision rather than a resolution. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | 16 to 19 company-operated openings in Q2 Company opened 16 new shacks in Q2, at the low end of the range. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 licensing revenue of $13.5 million to $13.7 million Actual licensing revenue was $14.2M, above the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q2 restaurant-level profit margin of 24% to 24.5% Actual RLM was 23.0% of shack sales, 100-150bps below the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 same-shack sales up 3% to 5% Actual came in at 3.5%, within range though near the low end. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q2 total revenue of $424 million to $428 million Actual Q2 revenue was $417.6M, below the low end of the guided range. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Supply chain savings to offset beef inflation Acknowledged 'elevated beef costs that continue to persist' - mitigation incomplete |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Marketing spend 2-3% of revenue Maintained range despite absolute dollar increases |
| Q1'26 | Pending | G&A leverage beginning in 2027 Now dependent on new CFO plan, timeline unchanged but execution risk increased |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Low single-digit same-Shack sales growth for 2026 Q1 delivered 4.6%, ahead of low single digit pace |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Restaurant level margin expansion at least 50 bps per year Q1 delivered 50 bps expansion to 21.2% despite weather headwinds |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 55-60 new company-operated Shacks in 2026 Raised guidance to 60-65 based on Q1 performance of 17 vs 12-14 guided |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We will launch new advertising starting later this quarter (Q3 2025) Launched 'We Really Cook' campaign in late January 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We are on track to open our largest class of company-operated Shacks (Q3 2025) Opened 45 new company-operated Shacks in 2025, confirmed as largest class on record |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Big part of that long-term commitment will be a strong loyalty platform, which we are working to deliver in 2026 (Q3 2025) Actually accelerated timeline to 'later this year' - ahead of original 2026 promise |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We expect cost savings from our supply chain to grow and be even more impactful in 2026 (Q3 2025) Supply chain savings helped offset mid-teens beef inflation to low single-digit net impact |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We plan on opening 40 to 45 more [licensed Shacks] in 2026 (Q3 2025) Still planning licensed expansion but didn't repeat specific 40-45 number |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We expect to open at least 55 to 60 Shacks as we accelerate our rate of new Shack growth (Q3 2025) Reiterated same 55-60 guidance for 2026 - consistent but not yet delivered |
| Q3'25 | Missed | 18-month innovation calendar locked and loaded French Onion failure suggests pipeline issues, had to pivot strategy mid-quarter |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Supply chain savings to help offset beef inflation Q4 guidance shows improvement from Q3 levels, savings materializing |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Dubai Shake would drive significant traffic Contributed to positive traffic growth, though needed media support to hit volume targets |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Paid media investments would drive traffic Working but less enthusiasm than Q2, French Onion pivot suggests mixed results |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Restaurant margin of approximately 22.5% for full year Reaffirmed guidance, tracking well at 22.8% in Q3 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Low single-digit same-Shack sales growth for full year 4.9% in Q3 puts them well above low single digits, maintaining guidance |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | 45 to 50 company-operated Shacks in 2025 At 30 through Q3, on track for target with Q4 guidance of 15-20 more |
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