| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | September 24, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | March 5, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | December 11, 2025 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | September 25, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | May 29, 2025 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Tariff refund submissions expected to yield refunds on a rolling basis over 2 to 3 months following submission Refunds materialized as described, with $184 million received in Q4 ($174M refunds + $10M interest), confirming the rolling-refund timeline. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Full-year FY26 CapEx estimated at approximately $6.5 billion Actual FY26 CapEx came in at $6.4 billion, essentially in line with (slightly under) the prior estimate. |
| Q4'26 | Missed | 26 net new warehouse openings planned for fiscal year 2026 Actual came in at 25 net new buildings for FY26 (28 opened including 3 relocations), one unit short of the 26 promised last quarter; a minor but real miss on a hard, countable metric. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Improve member experience through mobile wallet and pre-scan technology Checkout speed improvements up to 20%, automated pay stations piloted at 8 seconds |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to grow digitally-enabled sales at faster pace than overall sales 22.6% digital growth vs 7.4% comparable sales growth maintained |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Be first to lower prices and last to raise them Multiple KS price reductions cited including 39% drop in butter price |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $6.5 billion CapEx estimate for full year Maintained same guidance, Q2 CapEx of $1.29B on track |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to focus on increasing renewal rate of online members Renewal rate decline was less than anticipated due to targeted communications success |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 30 plus net openings per year in future years Maintained for future but revised FY26 down to 28 due to Spain delays |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | AI would be approached in very Costco way: practical, member-focused Pharmacy AI delivering measurable results, expanding to gas operations |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue to build digital capabilities for personalization Launched personalization with positive sales lift, exceeded foundation-building stage |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Extended hours would provide about 1% lift to weekly US sales Confirmed the 1% estimate held up after full quarter of implementation |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Capital expenditure growth to support higher warehouse openings $6.5B guidance represents 18% increase vs $5.5B actual FY25 |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue to see small decline in renewal rate as digital mix changes Only 10bps decline vs expected larger drop due to successful targeted communications |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 35 new warehouses in fiscal year 2026 Reduced to 28 due to Spain delays, but maintained confidence in 30+ future years |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Working closely with suppliers to mitigate tariff impact Provided specific examples like laundry detergent savings |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Investing in capabilities to deliver more personalized member experiences Showed targeted campaigns but still called it early days |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue to see renewal rate volatility quarter to quarter Now warning of structural decline, not just volatility |
| Q4'25 | Missed | CapEx for full year a little over $5 billion Came in at $5.5B, 10% above guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 27 new warehouses for fiscal 2025 including three relocations Delivered exactly 27 with 3 relocations for 24 net new |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Additional $40-50M LIFO charge in Q4 if current inflation maintained Hit $43M, right in the guidance range |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Building digital personalization capabilities Launched targeted Mother's Day campaigns and recommendation hub, progress visible |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Investment in employee wages with March 2025 agreement $40M catch-up accrual taken in Q3, mid-single digit SG&A headwind confirmed |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue expansion of gas station hours Extended hours led to two all-time highest gallon weeks in US |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Membership fee increase majority benefit in Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26 Fee increase now 4.6% of income vs 3% last quarter, tracking as expected |
| Q3'25 | Pending | CapEx approximately $5 billion for full year Reaffirmed as 'a little over $5 billion' with Q3 at $1.13B |
| Q3'25 | Pending | 28 new warehouse openings for fiscal 2025 Slightly reduced to 27 openings including 3 relocations, 24 net new buildings |
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