| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 23, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 23, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 10/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Capture improved margins from Americas footprint P&SP EBIT surged to $1.3B on 40% higher PE pricing |
| Q2'26 | Missed | $0.30/lb April PE price increase plus $0.20 May increase June settlement was DOWN $0.15/lb; complete reversal of Q1 pricing momentum |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Alberta project progressing as planned 60% CapEx complete, but no mention of original timeline or startup date |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Complete $1B cost savings program by end of 2026 Materially complete as of Q2, ahead of schedule |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Barry UK shutdown by middle of year Completed in Q2 as promised, $60M H2 EBITDA uplift beginning |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Transform to Outperform to ramp sharply to $400M in second half On track with $190M H1, but needs $510M H2 after raising target to $700M total |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Complete Sadara strategic review during 2026 Ongoing with Aramco, suspended loss recognition as interim step |
| Q1'26 | Pending | CapEx at or below D&A across the cycle Maintained commitment but Alberta ramp will test this |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Q1 EBITDA approximately $750M Delivered $873M, beat by $123M |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Alberta project aligned with market recovery Delayed to late 2029, reducing returns but better timing |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Benefits beginning 2026 from European asset shutdowns Barry UK shutdown progressing on schedule |
| Q1'26 | Pending | More than $500M remaining from $1B cost program by end 2026 On track based on Q1 performance but back-loaded |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $500M Transform to Outperform benefits in 2026 $193M delivered Q1, need $307M more with $400M expected in second half |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Navigate Q4 seasonal weakness Q4 EBITDA $741M vs typical seasonal declines, cost cuts visible |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Shutdown higher-cost European assets Three asset shutdowns announced, Barry UK facility by mid-2026 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Complete startup of Poly 7 and alkoxylation units Both units operational and contributing $40M quarterly run-rate |
| Q4'25 | Pending | $200-300M working capital release in second half 2025 Not specifically confirmed, but cash flow was stable |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Complete second phase of Macquarie infrastructure partnership Closed for $3B total proceeds in 2025 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Provide Alberta project update during Q4 earnings call Confirmed two-year delay to late 2029 startup with 8-10% returns |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Deliver approximately $400 million cost savings in 2025 Claimed 'well over half' of $1B program completed, suggesting $500M+ delivered |
Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.
Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.