| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 5, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 3, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 28, 2025 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Branded checkout slightly positive to low single-digit growth Maintained 2% growth but already warning about low end of range |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Launch new products for Venmo users to send, spend, save, invest, borrow Rebuilt app but no new financial products actually launched |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Expand PayPal Plus loyalty program to additional markets No update on expansion beyond UK despite Q1 commitment |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | 60% of non-vaulted merchants on new pages Achieved 60% vs 45% last quarter, meeting implied timeline |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Accelerate AI adoption across operations Created AI transformation team but no concrete deployments or savings disclosed |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Simplify organization and remove layers Announced org changes but only 'on track' to remove three layers by year-end |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Venmo revenue approaching $2B ahead of plan Reached $1.7B in 2025, on track for >$2B |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Value-added services scaling through 2025 Expanded to 16 services with merchants 'happy to pay' for them |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Double-digit Enterprise Payments volume growth Delivered mid-teens growth vs 12% in Q4 2025 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | PayPal Plus rewards program expansion beyond UK Still limited to UK, US launch pushed to 'mid-year to second half' 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Biometric adoption campaigns with merchant base 36% of consumers now checkout-ready, up 15 percentage points |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue scaling redesigned paysheet experience globally Reached 45% of non-vaulted customers vs ~30% prior quarter |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Mid-single digit branded checkout TPV growth for full year 2025 Delivered 1% Q4 growth, well below mid-single digits |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Venmo on pace to generate $1.7 billion in revenue this year Hit exactly $1.7B in 2025 excluding interest income |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We expect to see our efforts build as we move through the next year Mixed results - some initiatives working, overall branded checkout decelerated |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | BNPL volume continued to grow more than 20% BNPL grew 23% in Q4, maintaining 20%+ trajectory |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | We expect accelerated growth in PSP business PSP accelerated to 8% vs 6% in Q3, Enterprise Payments hit 12% growth |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Continuing to scale our redesigned checkout experiences globally Product deployment was 'slower than we planned' in H2 2025 per Miller |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We will drive acceleration and increase growth investments as we move through next year Announced 3 points of TM headwind from growth investments starting Q4 2025 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Transaction loss rate normalization Improved from Q2 but still elevated due to August disruption |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow improvement in H2 $2.3B in Q3 vs $656M in Q2, strong improvement |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continued Venmo revenue acceleration On track for $1.7B (+20%+), maintained momentum from Q2 |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Mid-teens percent of global transactions on new experiences Reached 25%, but qualified as 'close to' suggesting not quite there |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Acceleration in branded checkout growth Still at 5% growth, same as Q2 - no acceleration despite new experiences scaling |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | PSP volume growth return in Q3 PSP grew 6% vs 2% in Q2, exceeded promise of returning to growth |
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