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Management credibility scorecard

Adobe (ADBE)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call June 11, 2026
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90%
Kept of 21 resolved
19
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
3
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26June 11, 20264/123 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags31Call sheet →
Q1'26March 12, 20267/124 medium, 3 low flags60Call sheet →
Q4'252025-12-106/121 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags51Call sheet →
Q3'252025-09-1110/121 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26MissedTraditional stock business decline being managed
Completely dropped discussion of stock business after Q1's 'steeper decline than expected'
Q2'26DeliveredAdobe Summit major announcements for CXO
Launched CX Enterprise and CX Enterprise coworker with 150 enterprises in early adoption
Q2'26DeliveredFirefly Enterprise momentum continuing
Firefly ARR grew to ~$300M though growth rate decelerated from 75% to 50% QoQ
Q2'26PendingCEO transition with new leader to set strategy for fiscal 27
Timeline accelerated with goal to have new CEO 'in place' suggesting Q3/Q4 appointment
Q2'26DeliveredSemrush acquisition expected to close in Q2
Closed as promised in April
Q2'26PendingContinue to expect total Adobe ARR growth of 10.2% for FY '26
Maintained target but now includes Semrush, suggesting organic growth miss offset by M&A
Q1'26DeliveredFirefly Services enterprise adoption acceleration
Over 100 new deals in Q4, 3x QoQ growth confirmed
Q1'26DeliveredContinue to see generative credit consumption growth
45% QoQ growth, though decelerated from 3x pace
Q1'26ExceededStrong customer reception for Acrobat Studio
Nearly 50% of commercial ETLAs upgraded in Q4, ahead of expectations
Q1'26DeliveredAI-influenced ARR would exceed one-third of book
Confirmed exceeded one-third in Q4, now integrated AI throughout
Q1'26ExceededTotal Adobe ending ARR growth of over 10% for FY25
Achieved 11.5% growth vs >10% target
Q1'26ExceededFY25 Digital Media ARR growth target of 11.3%
Delivered 11.5% growth, beating by 20 bps
Q4'25DeliveredFirefly Services consumption acceleration
Confirmed acceleration but switched to less specific metrics.
Q4'25MissedAEP and Apps ending ARR growing greater than 40% YoY
Decelerated to 'over 30%' - significant slowdown in highest-growth DX product.
Q4'25DeliveredContinued growth of Acrobat Web MAU
MAU increased over 30% YoY, maintaining momentum.
Q4'25DeliveredStrong adoption of Creative Cloud Pro offering
Confirmed continued migration, but language less enthusiastic than Q3.
Q4'25ExceededDigital Media ending ARR book of business growth of 11.3%
Delivered 11.5%, beat by 20bps.
Q4'25ExceededAI-first ending ARR target of over $250 million
Hit target in Q4 vs year-end timeline. Actually delivered ahead of schedule.
Q3'25DeliveredFirefly app global rollout
Firefly app subscription plans now globally available with strong adoption metrics
Q3'25DeliveredGenStudio momentum in enterprise
GenStudio components now exceed $1B ARR growing 25%+
Q3'25DeliveredStrong adoption of Creative Cloud Pro offering
Management specifically called out strong adoption of CC Pro with Firefly integration
Q3'25DeliveredContinue to raise targets based on momentum
Raised full year revenue and EPS targets again this quarter
Q3'25PendingDigital Media ending ARR growth of 11% for FY25
Now targeting 11.3% growth, slight raise from prior guidance
Q3'25ExceededAI book of business tracking ahead of $250 million ending ARR target by end of fiscal 2025
They hit this target a quarter early, showing stronger AI monetization execution
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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