| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 10/12 | 5 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 10, 2026 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Couple more MCS orders needed for back half Orders came through but electric delays emerged as new issue |
| Q2'26 | Missed | China bottoming out Still declining at 27% YoY; can't definitively call bottom |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Deploy $1 billion annually toward M&A TriOS for $219M and WaterFleet announced; tracking but need acceleration |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Applied Water to get back above 20% EBITDA margins Q2 margin was 50 bps down YoY, below expectations |
| Q2'26 | Pending | MCS margins to return to expansion in second half Reaffirmed but with less conviction given electric delays |
| Q2'26 | Pending | WSS to return to mid-single-digit growth in second half Not explicitly reaffirmed this quarter; focus shifted to large contract wins |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Double-digit orders growth for Water meters throughout balance of year Still claiming this will happen but MCS guide was cut |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Strong backlog conversion and continued transformation traction Backlog up to $4.7B and book-to-bill above 1.0 as promised |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Mid-single digit growth for MCS in 2026 Q1 revenue up only 1% but orders still +15% - tracking behind but orders support recovery |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 2026 peak of 80/20 walk-away revenue impact Impact doubled from 2025 levels to 2% headwind - more aggressive than signaled |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | China bottoming out with no material improvement over next year or two China still down 30% as expected, though language softened to 'bouncing at bottom' |
| Q1'26 | Missed | MCS divestiture to close end of Q1 2026 Regulatory delays pushed closing to end of Q2 - six week delay |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Applied Water to be back in 20% EBITDA range in Q1 2026 Margins were below expectations in Q1, now pushed to 'balance of the year' recovery |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Acceleration of restructuring and simplification efforts Moving faster than anticipated according to Pine's prepared remarks |
| Q4'25 | Pending | International metering divestiture to close early 2026 On track for end of Q1 close at $125M price |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | China restructuring to align with volume contraction 40% workforce reduction implemented as promised |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full year EBITDA margin of 21.3% to 21.8% Delivered 22.2% margin, 140-170 bps expansion vs 100 bps framework |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | MCS maintaining high single-digit framework for 2026 Reaffirmed despite project timing variability and backlog normalization |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Treatment replicating transport success with 80/20 implementation Treatment identified as recent 80/20 starter but too early for results - tracking for 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q4 expected to be back to book-to-bill positive with water meter project wins Book-to-bill was 'near one' but several expected Q4 projects pushed to 2026 |
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