| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | July 29, 2026 | 4/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'26 | May 6, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | February 4, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | July 30, 2025 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | May 7, 2025 | 6/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | February 5, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | Delivered | Supply chain capacity to support $1 B of AGI CPU demand Management says capacity secured for $1 B; however, no detail on how many wafers or memory units. |
| Q1'27 | Missed | Operating margin around 49% for FY26 Margin fell to 41% in Q1, indicating cost pressure or pricing softness. |
| Q1'27 | Missed | Licensing revenue growth ~20% YoY for FY27 Licensing fell 30% QoQ; YoY still +23% but management now highlights ACV instead. |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | Data center royalties to more than double YoY Q1 royalty grew 22% YoY, consistent with “more than double” language from Q4. |
| Q1'27 | Pending | Generate $15 B AGI CPU revenue by FY31 Pipeline now $2 B for FY27‑28, far short of the 10‑year target. |
| Q1'27 | Pending | First silicon revenue from AGI CPU to land in Q4 FY27 Q1 call still expects Q4 delivery; no shipments reported yet. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | March 24 ARM Everywhere event announcements AGI CPU launched and demand already doubled from initial projections |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | R&D investment expansion OpEx $734M, though growth rate moderating as guided |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Continued CSS momentum Added 2 more CSS licenses, now 21 total across 12 companies |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Non-GAAP EPS guidance $0.58 ±$0.04 Delivered $0.60, top of range |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Q4 revenue guidance $1.47B ±$50M Delivered $1.49B, above midpoint |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Data center royalty revenue doubled year-on-year Delivered more than doubled and guided to double again in FY27 |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Infrastructure business approaching 15-20% mix Now 'teens to probably getting closer to 20%' |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Royalty growth outpacing market 27% growth vs mid-teens guidance |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Revenue growth above $1B quarterly Fourth consecutive $1B+ quarter at $1.24B |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | CSS momentum with major OEMs Added 2 more CSS licenses, now all top 4 Android OEMs shipping |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Strong R&D investment expansion OpEx up 37% YoY vs 31% last quarter |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Data center royalties continuing to double YoY More than doubled again this quarter |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | ACV growth maintaining 28% YoY momentum Exactly matched at 28% YoY both Q2 and Q3 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Hyperscaler market share approaching 50% through 2025 Reaffirmed nearly 50% expectation for this year, up from sub-20% last year |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue aggressive R&D investment to press advantages OpEx increased $53M sequentially, explicitly accelerating investment in next-gen technologies |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Expect royalties to be pretty close to previous quarter forecast Jason's guidance from last quarter held, though at lower end due to smartphone softness |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | CSS royalties becoming more material contributor to growth CSS now in market with 5 customers, delivering double v9 royalties with second-gen pricing above 10% |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue to diversify customer base beyond traditional semiconductor companies Added Malaysian government deal and expanded SoftBank relationship beyond traditional licensing |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Start the year with strong 25% to 30% royalty growth in Q1 Achieved 25% but came in at lower end of range, smartphone growth softer than expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | CSS adoption to continue increasing as percentage of royalties CSS now material contributor to royalties, drove v9 adoption above 30% |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full year license revenue to grow around 30% YoY Licensing revenue hit record $634M in Q4, driving >30% full year growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year royalty revenue growth in high-teens YoY Achieved with $2B+ total royalty revenue for the year |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year revenue around $4B with 24% YoY growth Exceeded $4B milestone for first time in company history |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.48-0.56 Delivered $0.55 at high end of range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 revenue guidance of $1.175-1.275B midpoint 32% YoY growth Achieved $1.24B at upper end of range with 33% YoY growth |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | CSS ramping over next couple of quarters Material CSS revenue began flowing in Q3 as promised |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Royalty revenue growth in high-teens full-year Maintained high-teens guidance despite record Q3 performance |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Strong Q4 licensing deals in pipeline Guided to massive 60% YoY Q4 licensing growth, execution risk acknowledged |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | IoT recovery not expected until next year 'Signs of recovery' emerged earlier than expected in Q3 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Sequential growth in networking Q3 and Q4 Networking showed expected sequential improvement |
| Q3'25 | Missed | v9 adoption continuing to grow quarter-over-quarter Stalled at 25% for multiple quarters, management surprised by flat performance |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Low-teens ACV growth run-rate expectation Delivered only 9% vs 13% prior quarter and low-teens target |
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