| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | August 4, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | February 3, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | November 12, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | August 5, 2025 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect sequential improvement on a same-store-sales basis of roughly one to one-and-a-half percentage points of margin improvement year over year on a constant mix basis. This is a recurring operating framework rather than a dated target; management has reaffirmed this expectation across quarters, but a current-quarter resolution was not independently confirmed with a verifiable figure. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Commercial aftermarket revenue growth guided to high single digit to low double digit percentage range. Fiscal year not yet complete; range was narrowed/raised this quarter to the low double digit range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY26 EBITDA guidance midpoint of $5.42 billion with ~52.3% margin. Fiscal year not yet complete; revised upward this quarter to $5.52 billion and 52.5% margin. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY26 revenue guidance midpoint of $10.36 billion, ~17% YoY. Fiscal year not yet complete; guidance was revised upward this quarter to $10.51 billion, a raise rather than a resolution. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | We continue to work towards a closing on Stellent and look forward to owning this business in the not-too-distant future. Deal was withdrawn in mid-July after DOJ signaled intent to challenge it under HSR; management confirmed the withdrawal and reasoning this quarter. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Integration progress on Servotronics and Simmonds Both integrations progressing as expected with experienced EVP leadership |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Free cash flow of approximately $2.4 billion Q1 at $900M suggests on track for full year |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | EBITDA margin around 52.3% Delivered 52.4%, slightly ahead of guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Defense growth in mid-single to high single-digit range 7% growth at low end of range, but bookings exceeded expectations |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Commercial OEM growth in high single-digit to mid-teens Delivered 17% growth, well above range due to Boeing recovery |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Commercial aftermarket growth in high single-digit range Delivered 7% vs high single-digit guidance, citing distribution and market share headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Simmonds acquisition to close quickly Closed as expected, now integrated into guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow of approximately $2.3 billion for fiscal 2025 Generated $2.4 billion, slightly above guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Supply chain conditions would continue to improve Not specifically addressed in Q4, but no mention of deterioration |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Defense bookings would remain healthy and support unchanged guidance Defense bookings 'significantly surpassed' prior year, better than 'healthy' |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Commercial aftermarket guidance of high single-digit to low double-digit for full year Delivered 10% full year growth, toward upper end of guidance range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Commercial OEM destocking would be temporary and return to positive growth in Q4 Q4 commercial OEM grew +7% YoY vs -7% in Q3, exactly as predicted |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | No material headwind from tariffs that we are unable to mitigate Confirmed no material tariff impact, focusing on cost reduction initiatives |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | EBITDA margin around 52.9% for full year 54.4% in Q3, raised guidance to 53.8% despite margin dilution from acquisitions |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Commercial OEM growth in low single-digit to mid single-digit range Lowered to flat-to-low single digit after -7% Q3 performance |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Defense revenue growth in high single-digit to low double-digit range 13% growth in Q3 vs 9% in Q2, raised from prior high single-digit guidance |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Commercial aftermarket growth in high single-digit to low double-digit range Need 8%+ in Q4 to hit guidance after 6% in Q3 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Full year free cash flow of approximately $2.3 billion YTD at $1.9B, on track with $715M in Q3 vs $340M in Q2 |
Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.
Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.