| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 8/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expectation to get incremental units from latest capacity expansion as early as 2027 Deadline not yet reached; no update provided this quarter on 2027 unit availability. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Large reciprocating engine capacity expansion from 2x to nearly 3x 2024 levels, with positive cash payback by end of decade Multi-year capacity build, deadline not yet reached; no new cash-payback update given this quarter. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY26 tariff costs in the range of $2.2 to $2.4 billion Full year not complete; revised this quarter to approximately $2.2 billion, the low end of the prior range. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 tariff costs of approximately $700 million Actual tariff costs excluding IEPA recoveries came in at approximately $400 million, favorable to the April estimate. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q2 2026: "minimal change in construction industries during dealer inventory" CI dealer inventory rose $400M versus a decline a year ago, explicitly flagged as 'higher than we originally anticipated'. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026: "another quarter of strong sales growth versus the prior year" Revenue came in at $20.5B, +24% YoY, explicitly 'better than expected'. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY26 MP&E free cash flow higher than 2025's $9.5B Not yet resolved; guidance raised this quarter to top half of the $6-15B range. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY26 sales and revenues growth of "low double-digit" Full year not yet complete; guidance was raised this quarter to mid-to-high teens, a revision not a delivery. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue to execute capacity expansion plans Accelerated timeline and increased from 2x to 3x capacity target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Capital expenditures around $3.5B Maintained $3.5B for 2026, but now 4-5% through 2030 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Incremental tariff costs around $2.6B for full year Maintained $2.2-2.4B estimate, slight improvement |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | MP&E free cash flow expected to be slightly lower than 2025 Now expect higher than 2025, upgraded outlook |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Full-year adjusted operating profit margin to exceed 2025 levels Q1 at 18% vs 15.6% Q4 2025, on track |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | All three segments to benefit from positive price realization, about 2% Achieved favorable price realization across segments as guided |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Sales and revenues to grow around the top of 5-7% CAGR target Delivered 22% growth Q1, raised full-year to low double-digit |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to expect full year services revenues about flat versus 2024 Delivered exactly $24B as expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Construction Industries full year sales to users growth despite global industry softness Achieved 5% growth, advancing toward 2030 target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Fourth quarter adjusted operating margin higher vs prior year excluding tariffs Excluding tariffs, Q4 margin was higher than prior year |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | ME&T free cash flow above midpoint of $5-10B range Delivered $9.5B, well above $7.5B midpoint |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year adjusted operating profit margin near bottom of target range including tariffs Achieved 17.2% which is within 17-20% target range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full year 2025 sales and revenues to increase modestly versus 2024 Delivered 4% growth vs 'modest' implied low single digits |
Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.
Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.