| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | May 28, 2026 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | March 5, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | December 2, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | Pending | Marketing investments to drive long-term brand health Customer file growing, awareness up, but now pivoting to conversion focus |
| Q1'26 | Missed | AE brand improvement through 2026 Guided positive low single digits Q1 but delivered -2%, though they claim recent weeks improving |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Aerie growth momentum to continue into 2026 +34% growth, +25% comp exceeded expectations |
| Q1'26 | Pending | CapEx $250M-$260M for 2026 Maintained guidance, Q1 at $61M suggests on track |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 25-30 lower productivity AE store closures in 2026 Reduced to 20-25 closures, suggesting better performance than expected |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Phoenix distribution center opening early May 2026 Went live early May as promised, delivered under 1 year timeline |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Managing tariff impact through cost savings and efficiencies Absorbed $50M tariff hit with only 30 bps gross margin decline vs 300 bps direct impact |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Positive trends continuing into Q4 Q4 trends exceeded Q3, described as 'record-breaking Thanksgiving and holiday season' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | SG&A leverage in Q4 despite advertising investment SG&A leveraged 120 bps on strong revenue growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to see untapped opportunities within Aerie and OFFLINE Aerie delivered 23% comps, accelerating from 11% in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 comp sales growth of 8-9% Achieved 8% comp growth as guided |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 operating income guidance of $155-160M Delivered $180M, beating guidance by $20-25M |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | ~30 Aerie and Offline store openings in 2025 On track for 22 Aerie + 26 Offline = 48 total |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Continue traffic momentum from August into fall season Record Thanksgiving weekend, positive traffic sustained |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | SG&A up high single digits in Q3 for advertising investment SG&A up 10%, primarily advertising spend |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Third quarter would see progressive improvement with new deliveries Clear acceleration from -1% Q2 to +4% Q3 comps |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Low single-digit Q3 comp growth guidance Delivered +4% vs low single-digit guide |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Third quarter operating income guidance of $95-100M Delivered $113M, beat by $13-18M driven by stronger demand |
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