| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 10, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 4, 2025 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Headcount to remain flat through 2026 Full year not complete; reaffirmed this quarter as still flat, consistent with prior quarter's statement. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Meaningful YoY free cash flow growth expected in 2026 Full year not complete; reiterated this quarter with identical language, though Q2 FCF itself declined sequentially. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Ads business expected to show improved growth in H2 2026 Period has not ended; management reiterated the same H2 2026 inflection guidance this quarter with no interim ad revenue growth rate disclosed to assess progress. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 operating income guidance of 630M€ Actual operating income was 655M€, beating guidance by 25M, though 9M of that came from non-forecasted social charges. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 gross margin guidance of 33.1%, +160bps YoY Actual gross margin was 33.4%, beating guidance by 30bps with +193bps YoY expansion, though partly aided by a one-time DST Canada reversal. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 revenue guidance of ~4.8B€, 15% growth Actual revenue was 4.8B€, growing 15% YoY, an exact match to guidance. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 subscriber guidance of 299M, net adds of 6M Actual net adds were 7M, finishing at 300M, 1M ahead of guidance. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q2 MAU guidance of 778M, +17M from Q1 Actual net additions of 16M were 1M below forecast. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | AI DJ to reach 100M users Approaching 100M milestone ahead of expectations |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Enhanced free tier to drive conversion benefits Seeing engagement lift but conversion impact not yet quantified |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Meaningful YoY free cash flow growth in 2026 Q1 FCF strong at €824M though timing factors present |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Both gross margin and operating margin to improve in 2026 Q1 gross margin flat despite pricing power |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Improved ad growth in second half of 2026 Still using identical language, no acceleration in confidence |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Continued healthy subscriber growth weighted to back half of year Q1 delivered in-line with seasonal expectations at 3M adds |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Video podcast growth momentum 530K video shows vs ~500K previously, 90%+ consumption growth since SPP launch |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Margin expansion in steady, sustainable manner Gross margin up 150bps sequentially to 33.1%, operating margin expanded significantly |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Audiobook expansion to more markets Launched in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Monaco - publishers reporting double-digit growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued price increases in thoughtful manner $1 US price increase implemented January 2026 with low churn as expected |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Ad business improvements in back half of 2026 Now saying 'second half of 2026' - subtle timeline extension but consistent direction |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Enhanced free tier would drive MAU growth 38M MAU adds in Q4 vs 17M in Q3 - enhancement was a key contributor to record quarter |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | 2025 margin expansion despite investments Gross margin up 50 bps YoY, operating leverage evident. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Audiobook add-on expansion Now in 13 markets with 'really good' uptake according to Alex. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Video podcast monetization opportunities Netflix partnership announced, though revenue impact TBD. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Global rollout of enhanced free tier Completed global rollout, contributing to MAU beat by 3M. |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Programmatic growth to compensate for direct sales weakness Still waiting for programmatic to offset direct sales decline. Timeline extended. |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Ad business improvements to take hold in 2025 Ad revenue flat YoY in Q3. Now saying inflection pushed to H2 2026. |
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