| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | August 19, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | May 20, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | February 18, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | November 25, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 9 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | August 20, 2025 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Internal capacity comfortable to support up to $20 billion as part of 2030 vision 2030 deadline has not arrived; notably, the $20B figure was not repeated this quarter, replaced instead with scenario-planning language, a soft downgrade in stated visibility though not a stated miss. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | MPower/Empower is expected to drive significant revenue surge beginning in 2027 FY2027 deadline has not arrived; this quarter's remarks on MPower focus on power-savings math ($30M per 1GW data center) rather than restating a 2027 revenue ramp figure, so visibility is unchanged or slightly less specific. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Q3 outlook baked in a flat channel inventory weeks assumption Channel weeks actually fell below the 6 to 7 week target rather than staying flat; a different outcome than the flat assumption, though not necessarily a negative for the business. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Consumer expected to be down single digits sequentially in Q3 Consumer actually finished flat sequentially, better than the guided decline. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Communications expected to be the fastest grower, up low- to mid-teens sequentially in Q3 Communications actually grew 18% sequentially, above the guided low-to-mid teens range. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Q3 industrial and automotive expected to grow sort of mid to high single digits sequentially Industrial actually grew 10% sequentially and automotive grew 14% sequentially, both above the guided mid-to-high single digit range. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Once past H1 headwinds, auto H2 will be stronger Maintained this view but China weakness clouds outlook |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to see growth in broad market industrial Broad market cited as robust growth driver |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expect OpEx growth to trail revenue growth by roughly half Not addressed this quarter, needs full year view |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Data center and ATE to continue steep growth trajectories Data center up 90% YoY, ATE guiding +30% sequential for Q3 |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Industrial to continue above seasonal growth Delivered with 20% sequential vs 5% seasonal |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Auto will be below seasonal in Q2 but grow in fiscal 2026 Q2 delivered as promised (flat vs mid-single digit seasonal), but FY26 growth still TBD |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Fiscal 2025 CapEx to be within long-term model of 4% to 6% of revenue Fiscal '25 CapEx was $0.5B on $11B+ revenue, within range |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Positioned for further growth in '26 from power management design wins in premium handsets and smart glasses Consumer up 27% YoY with notable benefits from premium handsets |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We see positive impact of new software-defined AI-enabled macro base station solutions Wireless revenue up double digits for second straight quarter |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We expect to maintain strong presence in growing low earth orbit satellite market Aerospace and defense had record results but no specific LEO update |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We anticipate continued growth in '26 and well beyond in energy segment Energy mentioned as part of industrial strength but no specific update |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We expect further growth in FY '26 due to expanding design pipeline and expected double-digit growth in hyperscaler CapEx ATE business further accelerated in Q1 as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Channel inventories to remain lean while building die bank buffers Channel at ~6 weeks (lean), built $59M inventory sequentially while days declined to 159. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Data center segment maintaining 50%+ growth momentum Crossed $1B run rate, maintained 50%+ growth for third consecutive quarter driven by AI infrastructure. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued strength in aerospace & defense with supply constraints Hit record results, confirmed supply limitations persist, deploying more tools in Q4 to address capacity. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Industrial Q4 growth in low-to-mid teens sequentially Industrial up 12% sequential, within the guided range despite being seasonally down quarter. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Auto Q4 decline due to pull-forward unwinding from Q2/Q3 Auto was up 1% sequential vs expected decline. Rich said 'that did not appear to happen to us' - complete reversal of their confident prediction. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q4 gross margin expected to increase to 70% with higher industrial mix Came in at 69.8%. Rich blamed automotive being stronger than expected, keeping industrial mix lower. Second consecutive quarter missing 70% target. |
| Q3'25 | Pending | CapEx within 4-6% of revenue for 2025 Reaffirmed guidance, on track based on YTD spending patterns |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continued auto pull-in unwinding in Q3 Auto down 1% sequential, confirmed pull-ins shifting from Americas/Europe to China |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Channel inventories remain lean while building balance sheet inventory Channel weeks ticked lower, inventory days declined to 160 despite $72M build |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q3 gross margin around 70% Delivered 69.2% due to European fab utilization issues |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Industrial to lead recovery with positive book-to-bill 12% sequential growth with book-to-bill >1 across all industrial subsectors |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Revenue bottomed in 2024, returning to growth in fiscal '25 Achieved with 25% YoY growth in Q3 and strong Q4 guide |
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