| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 30, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Benicia depreciation through April only $33M Q2 impact as guided |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Port Arthur crude units restart by May 1 Never mentioned, appears delayed or abandoned as a target |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Update 2026 CapEx guidance with Port Arthur costs Updated to $2B total with $250M Port Arthur included |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain disciplined capital allocation framework 59% payout ratio maintained despite record earnings |
| Q2'26 | Pending | St. Charles FCC project to begin operations in 2026 Narrowed to Q3 2026 completion |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Port Arthur definitive cost estimate and timeline when available $250M cost revealed but timeline remains vague at 'year-end' |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Refining throughput guidance ranges for Q1 Achieved 2.9M bpd within expected parameters |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Net debt-to-cap target of 20-30% 18% is below target range, indicating conservative balance sheet |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Minimum payout ratio of 40-50% through cycle Q1 payout ratio of 59% well above minimum commitment |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Renewable diesel better 2026 vs 2025 Q1 results support this (+$280M swing), but hedged on volatility |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 2026 CapEx of approximately $1.7B Reiterated from Q4 guidance, though Port Arthur may require additional unplanned spending |
| Q1'26 | Pending | St. Charles alkylate project to begin operations in 2026 Maintained same timeline from Q4, still on track |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Quality differentials continuing to widen going forward Heavy Canadian now $11+ under Brent, medium sours widened to 8% discount |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Ethanol production 4.6 million gallons per day in Q4 Achieved record production and set quarterly record |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Renewable diesel sales volumes 258 million gallons in Q4 Delivered higher volumes with better economics |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Refining cash operating expenses in Q4 approximately $4.80 per barrel Came in at $5.30 per barrel, 50 cents over guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | G&A expenses for 2025 approximately $985 million Delivered as promised, guided 2026 to $960 million |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Capital investments for 2025 approximately $1.9 billion Came in at $1.8 billion, slightly under guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | St. Charles FCC project expected to begin operations in second half of 2026 Timeline unchanged but cost increased to $230 million from prior estimates |
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