| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 21, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 22, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | 2026-04-22 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 18, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 7 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 22, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | 'We anticipate the banking line of business exiting the year more aligned with the typical historical high single digit ARR growth range' FY not yet ended; Q3 banking ARR came in at 8%, consistent with the stated target range so far. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Restructuring program to deliver $300M-$350M annualized savings by year-end 2027 Multi-year target not yet ended; not mentioned at all this quarter, so progress is unverified and actual run-rate savings were not stated on the call. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 first-time mandates 'on pace for the 750 to 850' FY not yet ended; this is a raise, not a delivery, now guided to 900-950. Record as an upward revision. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 free cash flow guidance of $2.7B to $2.9B FY not yet ended, but the explicit range was not restated this quarter; only YTD FCF of $2.2B, +22% yoy was disclosed. Actual not stated on the call whether the range still holds. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $16.50-$17.00, 12% growth at midpoint FY not yet ended; reaffirmed identically this quarter at $16.50-$17.00, 12% growth at midpoint. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 'We are raising our issuance outlook from low to mid single digit percent growth' for FY2026 FY period not yet ended; this quarter reaffirmed 'unchanged at mid single digit percent growth', a maintain rather than a revision. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | 'For MIS, we expect low single digit revenue growth in Q3 as market activity slows through the summer' MIS revenue actually came in at $1.1B, down 1% yoy, versus the guided low single digit growth. A clear miss on an ended-period, explicitly stated guidance figure. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Close sale of Regulatory Solutions on April 30 They said 'we expect to close' in April but it closed in Q2 instead |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Christine Kosmowski joining as MA CEO in June Started in late June as promised |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 750-850 first time mandates for full year Q2 showing 45% growth YoY, appears on track |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Mid to high 30s MA margin target by end of 2027 Reiterated but still 400-500 bps away with 18 months to go |
| Q2'26 | Pending | MA margin of 34-35% for full year 2026 Q2 at 33.6%, needs 150+ bps expansion in H2 to hit midpoint |
| Q2'26 | Pending | MA ARR growth in high single digit range for full year Q2 at 9%, on track but needs acceleration in H2 to maintain |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue investing in private credit capabilities Private credit revenue up 80% YoY, exceeded 60% full-year 2025 growth |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Moody's for Compliance platform to drive KYC growth Launched in April, already seeing pre-launch success |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 'Dedicated sales team focused on agent-ready data in 2026' No mention of dedicated team, still talking about trials and pipeline building |
| Q1'26 | Pending | MIS margin approximately 65% for 2026 On track with Q1 at 66.7%, ahead of pace |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | MA margin expansion to 33-34% in 2025 Delivered 33.1%, above midpoint of guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | ARR growth in high single-digit range for 2025 Delivered exactly 8% ARR growth as guided |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue portfolio optimization Completed Learning Solutions sale, announced Regulatory Reporting divestiture |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Private credit as growth driver 60% revenue growth, expanded beyond just direct lending into securitization |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | ARR growth of high single-digit for 2025 ARR reached $3.5B, up 8%, consistent with guidance |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Strong momentum in AI-related sales Provided specific retention and uplift metrics showing concrete traction |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | MIS revenue growth in high single-digit range for 2025 Achieved 9% growth, exactly at high single-digit range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | MA margin of approximately 33% for full year 2025 Delivered 33.1%, raised to ~35.9% in Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Private credit as important growth driver 60%+ revenue growth, 70% deal count growth, 25% of first-time mandates |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Mid-single-digit issuance growth for full year Updated to mid-single-digit, conditions improving |
| Q3'25 | Pending | 700-800 first-time mandates for full year On track with 200 in Q3, updated to 700-750 range |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | High single-digit MA ARR growth Maintaining 8% ARR growth consistently |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | MA full-year margin guidance of 32-33% Raised outlook to approximately 33% on strong Q3 performance |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Full year MIS adjusted operating margin of 61-62% Raised guidance to 63-64%, currently running at 65.2% |
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