| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 31, 2026 | 5/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 1, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 13, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Flu approval discussions with FDA PDUFA date set for August 5 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | PA rare disease data in 2026 Now specifically Q4 2026, maintaining timeline |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Norovirus data in 2026 Quietly walked back to 'more likely in 2027' after interim fail |
| Q2'26 | Pending | INT melanoma interim analysis in 2026 Still committing to 2026 but hedging on outcome expectations |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $4.2B adjusted cash costs Now guiding $4.0B, delivering on cost reduction |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 Q1+Q2 at $545M, needs ~$1.5B in H2 to hit low end of range |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Norovirus Phase III data in 2026 subject to case accrual Maintained expectation, second season fully enrolled |
| Q1'26 | Pending | PA program pivotal data readout in 2026 Still expecting data this year, study fully enrolled |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Type A meeting with FDA on flu vaccine path forward Requested but no timeline provided for meeting or resolution |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Intismeran Phase III adjuvant melanoma interim 2026 Still confident but less specific on timing |
| Q1'26 | Pending | European market entry 2027 with multiple products mCOMBRIAX and mNEXSPIKE approved in EU, on track |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 50/50 US/International revenue split 2026 Q1 was 80% international, but guidance maintained for full year |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $4.2B adjusted cash costs for 2026 On track with Q1 26% reduction, maintained target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Full year revenue growth up to 10% for 2026 Reiterated guidance despite flu setback, relying on partnerships |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Phase III norovirus study...proceed to enroll a second Northern Hemisphere season Acknowledged need for second season as anticipated, managing expectations properly |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We expect to see 2 clinical milestones from our intismeran program 5-year melanoma data delivered, Phase III melanoma data still pending-partial delivery |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We will begin shipping locally manufactured product in 4Q '25 and 1Q '26 Australia and UK manufacturing on track as promised-operational execution solid |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Lower our 2025 expense guidance due to additional progress Beat Q3 cost reduction guidance by additional $700M-strong execution on efficiency |
| Q4'25 | Missed | We continue to target cash breakeven in 2028 This promise from Q3 was completely dropped in Q4 materials-major omission after flu RTF |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Revenue to be weighted to second half with approximately 15% first half, 85% second half Q3 guidance called this split, they're maintaining it for 2026-consistent seasonal pattern |
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