| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 12, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 12, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | March 31, 2026 | 4/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 18, 2025 | 5/12 | 4 high, 4 medium flags | 0 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | August 20, 2025 | 7/12 | 3 high, 3 medium flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | May 15, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium flags | 2 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'24 | May 8, 2024 | 5/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | 45X monetization expected into 'three Q to the end to the year end' 2026 Not addressed on this call; actual status unstated, treated as unverified since metric disappeared from disclosure. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | We continue to target the announcement of the G2 financing in the second quarter Q2 ended with only a bridge convertible note closed, not the comprehensive financing solution originally targeted. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | We remain on schedule to achieve first cell production in Q4 2026 Timeline pushed out to Q1 2027 per current call, framed as an optimization rather than a miss. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Announce additional offtake agreement Was in 'advanced discussions' in Q4, now just 'pursuing' with no timeline |
| Q1'26 | Pending | First cell production at G2 in Q4 2026 Still claiming on schedule despite construction delays |
| Q1'26 | Pending | G1 production target of 3.1-4.2 GW for 2026 Maintained range but Q1 run rate of 2.7 GW suggests challenge to hit high end |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Sales and EBITDA to improve each quarter through 2026 Q1 EBITDA positive but they're now hedging on quarterly progression |
| Q1'26 | Missed | First steel erection at G2 in April Delayed to 'later in May' citing weather but still a miss |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Achieve full financial close on G2 financing in April Pushed to 'second quarter' with no specific month committed |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Source meaningful supply of non-FEOC cells for 2026 Claims they have supply but no quantities or suppliers named |
| Q4'25 | Missed | 2025 EBITDA of $25-50M Claimed 'onetime items' but that's what they all say when they miss |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Provide 2026 production guidance 'shortly' Gave 3.1-4.2GW range but it's so wide it's barely guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Start G2 construction in Q4 2025 Did start in December but only because they burned raise proceeds without full financing |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Monetize 45X credits in Q4 2025 Still 'exchanging term sheets' in Q1 2026, no closed transaction |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Source non-FEOC cells for 2026 bridge year Claims to have 'identified' supply but no contracts or volumes disclosed |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Integrated EBITDA run rate of $650-700M Slashed to $375-450M without explanation or acknowledgment of prior guidance |
| Q3'25 | Missed | G2 capacity of 5 GW in two 2.5 GW phases Quietly cut Phase 1 to 2.1 GW, total now 5.3 GW assuming Phase 2 unchanged |
| Q3'25 | Pending | 2025 EBITDA guidance of $25-50M Maintained but seems stretched given contract dispute and Q3 miss |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Secure debt financing before equity for G2 Complete reversal, raised $122M equity in October claiming 'attractive terms' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Start G2 construction in Q3 or Q4 2025 Claims Q4 start is on track but only with equity funding, not the debt they promised |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Secure additional multiyear take-or-pay commitments Only spot 473 MW merchant deal announced, no long-term contracts |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Begin monetizing Section 45X PTCs in Q2 or Q3 Credits audited, marketing for Q3 sale according to current call |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Continue to evaluate and pursue strategic options for European portfolio No update on Giga Arctic, CQP, or Giga Vasa monetization |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Advance initial development of G2 Austin Contractors selected but construction not started, awaiting financing |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | G1 Dallas fully operational with module deliveries beginning to ramp Plant operational, 1 GW cumulative production milestone achieved |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Expect improved financial performance in the back half of the year Q2 sales and EBITDA fell short of expectations per management admission |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Production at G1 significantly ahead of plan True but irrelevant since they can't sell what they produce |
| Q1'25 | Pending | G2 Austin start of construction midyear 2025 Still claiming Q2-Q3 start but no committed capital yet |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Begin 45X PTC monetization in Q1 Pushed to Q2 or Q3, cash flow delay |
| Q1'25 | Missed | 1.9GW merchant sales through Trina partnership Essentially abandoned, now expecting 0-500MW merchant sales |
| Q1'25 | Missed | $75M-$125M EBITDA for 2025 Slashed to $30M-$50M, a 60% reduction at midpoint |
| Q1'25 | Missed | 3.4GW full year 2025 production Cut to 2.6-3.0GW due to demand collapse, not operational issues |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Complete G1 loan conversion by April 30 Converted construction loan to $235M term loan on schedule |
| Q1'24 | Delivered | Two-year cash runway into 2026 Confirmed 'beyond 2 years' with current burn rate |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Secure DoE conditional commitment before end of 2024 Maintained timeline but no progress indicators |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Finalize conventional technology agreement in H1 2024 Now saying 'coming weeks' as H1 ends |
| Q1'24 | Exceeded | Reduce consultants by 26% Achieved 50% reduction, nearly double the target |
| Q1'24 | Missed | Reduce employee headcount by 22% by end of Q1 Only achieved 20% reduction versus 22% target |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Commence automated unit cell production with full functionality in Q2 2024 Still claiming they're days away in final weeks of Q2 |
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