| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | July 29, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | April 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | January 28, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 5 medium flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | October 29, 2025 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | July 30, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Pending | Double overall capacity in two years Added 1 gigawatt this quarter, on track but not verified |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Delivering capacity earlier in quarter Wisconsin data center came online 6 weeks early, enabling Q4 beat |
| Q4'26 | Pending | GitHub Copilot usage-based pricing in June Announced for June 1 transition, will impact Q1 FY27 |
| Q4'26 | Missed | Foundry reaching 1 trillion token customers Said 'over 300 customers on track' but this is future-looking not achieved |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | M365 Copilot acceleration through fiscal year Seats grew from 20M to 30M, exceeding doubled QoQ growth |
| Q4'26 | Pending | Accelerating H1 Azure growth from Q4 Guided 45% for Q1 vs 43% in Q4, modest acceleration as promised |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Windows OEM to decline in low teens for Q3 Only declined 2-3%, significantly better than guided range |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Commercial bookings healthy growth on growing expiry base when adjusted for OpenAI Only 7% growth ex-OpenAI vs 'healthy growth' promise - this is concerning |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Continue to balance incoming supply between Azure demand and first-party usage Explicitly mentioned allocating capacity to first-party apps and R&D over Azure |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage roughly 65% in Q3 Delivered 66%, 100bps better than guidance |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Capital expenditures to decrease on a sequential basis in Q3 Dropped from $37.5B to $31.9B as guided |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Microsoft 365 Copilot seat adds to accelerate quarter over quarter Went from 15M to over 20M seats, record quarter-over-quarter growth |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Azure Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency Delivered 40-39% growth, beat guidance by 200+ bps |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Balance incoming supply against other priorities Detailed allocation between Azure, first-party apps, R&D, and replacements |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Demand will continue to exceed supply Explicitly confirmed: 'demand continues to exceed available supply' |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | CapEx will increase sequentially in Q2 Increased from $34.9B to $37.5B as promised |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be roughly 66% Guided 66%, delivered 67% - efficiency gains offset AI investments |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Azure revenue growth of approximately 37% in constant currency Guided 37% for Q2, delivered 39% - beat by 200bps |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We will increase our total AI capacity by over 80% this year Added nearly one gigawatt this quarter but no update on full-year progress toward 80% |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Microsoft Cloud gross margin approximately 67% Delivered 68% beating margin guidance despite AI infrastructure investments |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Azure Q1 revenue growth approximately 37% constant currency Delivered 39% beating guidance by 200 bps |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Commercial bookings healthy growth on growing expiry base 112% growth massively exceeded 'healthy growth' guidance, driven by OpenAI contracts |
| Q1'26 | Missed | CapEx growth to moderate compared to FY25 $34.9B represents acceleration not moderation, now expect 'FY26 growth rate to be higher than FY25' |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Operating margins relatively flat year-over-year for FY26 Delivered 49% vs 45% prior year, +400 bps beat on margin guidance |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Expected to remain capacity-constrained through first half of fiscal year Extended timeline to 'at least end of fiscal year' - capacity shortage worse than projected despite CapEx surge |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | AI capacity constraints beyond June (Q3 warning) Confirmed ongoing constraints, now through H1 FY26 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | M365 Commercial Cloud ~14% growth in Q4 (Q3 guidance) Delivered 16% CC growth vs 14% guided |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Azure Q4 growth 34-35% in constant currency (Q3 guidance) Delivered 39% growth, significantly ahead of guidance range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full-year FY25 operating margins up slightly year-over-year (Q3 call) Delivered margin expansion and guided to 'relatively unchanged' for FY26 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | H2 capex total unchanged from January guidance (Q3 call) Confirmed H2 capex remained on plan despite Q4 sequential increase |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Expected to be in better supply-demand balance by June (Q3 call) Now expects constraints through H1 FY26 - demand grew faster than supply additions |
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