| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | 2026-07-29 | 6/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | April 22, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | 2026-01-28 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | October 22, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2025-07-30 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 7 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Missed | Return at least 85% of FCF over time Only returned 45% in Q4, though claims 81% YTD |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Capital spending at 4-5% of revenue Tracking at ~3.5% currently, well within range |
| Q4'26 | Missed | China WFE flattish year over year Now guiding China revenue down, complete reversal |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | CSBG sustaining at Q1 levels through year Actually grew 17% sequentially to new record |
| Q4'26 | Pending | Gross margin roughly at June levels for rest of year New promise this quarter at 50.5%, September guide suggests 52%, tracking ahead |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | WFE of $140 billion with bias to upside Delivered $150B, full $10B upside realized |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Outperform WFE growth through SAM expansion and share gains Revenue growth tracking above WFE growth rates, SAM expanding to mid-30s range |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Gross margin improvements sustainable through fundamental value delivery Gross margin expanded to 49.9% despite mix headwinds, guidance up to 50.5% |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | CSBG to grow at high single digit, maybe low double digit pace CSBG up 25% YoY in Q3, first $2B+ quarter ahead of expectations |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | China revenue to be flattish year-over-year, declining as percentage China declined from 35% to 34% mix, with further decline expected in Q4 |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Advanced packaging business to grow more than 40% in 2026 Now expecting growth to exceed 50% - ahead of original target |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Second half weighted year with growth throughout 2026 On track with Q3 sequential growth and Q4 guidance acceleration |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | WFE of $135 billion range for 2026 Upgraded to $140B with upward bias - delivered ahead of original forecast |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | $40B NAND upgrade spend over several years Now accelerating faster than expected with stronger 2026 outlook |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Ether dry resist technology broader adoption Ramping in HBM production with major memory manufacturer |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Inventory turns improvement focus Improved to 2.7x from 2.6x, continuing multi-year trend |
| Q2'26 | Pending | China to represent less than 30% in 2026 Now saying 'flattish' instead of specific percentage, walked back commitment |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | WFE slightly better than $105B view for 2025 Came in close to $110B, better than prior guidance |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | CSBG year-over-year growth in 2025 CSBG reached record $7.2B for full year, up significantly |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Calendar 2025 with three consecutive quarters above $5 billion revenue Q4 2025 delivered $5.34B, completing the streak as promised |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Tax rate back to low-to-mid teens after Q3 reserve release Q1 came in at 14.2% as guided, though 2026 increase now flagged |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Gross margins to normalize to around 48% in December after Q3 strength December guidance of 48.5% vs 50.6% actual Q1 - margins holding higher than expected |
| Q1'26 | Pending | More than $3 billion combined advanced packaging and gate-all-around revenue Advanced packaging described as 'a little bit stronger than expected' but no updated total provided |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Lam SAM expanding to mid-30s percent of WFE in 2025 Not explicitly updated, but technology wins suggest tracking well |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | CSBG modest growth for calendar year 2025 Upgraded from 'modest' to record spares+services revenue with upgrades outpacing installed base growth |
| Q1'26 | Pending | WFE in the second half of calendar 2025 roughly flat with first half Guidance implies this remains on track with Q4 expected to decline from Q3 levels |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | SAM expansion in mid-30s percent of WFE Confirmed 2025 SAM target with expectation of high 30s percent longer term |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Outperformance versus WFE growth Growing 3x WFE rate with strong positioning in key technology inflections |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Gross margin improvements from manufacturing strategy Hit 50.3%, highest since Novellus merger, with continued operational efficiencies |
| Q4'25 | Missed | China concentration down year over year Now expects flat to slightly down instead of meaningful decline |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | CSBG flat-ish for the year Upgraded to 'modest growth' driven by record upgrades business |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | WFE spending in the $100 billion range Raised to $105B predominantly due to China strength |
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