| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 30, 2026 | 6/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 10/12 | - | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 30, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Missed | Tranium 3 shipping start of 2026 Now says 'just started shipping' in Q2, suggests Q1 delay |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 100 more Whole Foods stores in next few years Not mentioned this quarter, quietly dropped from narrative |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | OpenAI models coming to Bedrock GPT 5.4 added yesterday, 5.5 'coming soon' |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Quick desktop app V1 launch Announced yesterday per Q1 commitment |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Commercial Leo service launch in Q3 2026 Confirmed 'on track to launch in a few months' with commercial service this year |
| Q2'26 | Pending | AWS on track to double capacity by end of 2027 vs 2025 Reiterated they're 'on pace' but no specific capacity numbers provided |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue expanding grocery and everyday essentials Hit $150B grocery run rate, everyday essentials now 1 in 3 units sold |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Strong return on invested capital for AI CapEx AWS margins expanded despite heavy investment, but no ROIC specifics provided |
| Q1'26 | Pending | More than 20 LEO satellite launches planned in 2026 On track, had launch this week bringing total above 250 |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Amazon LEO commercial service launch in 'few months' Pushed to Q3, now 'later this year' |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Significant CapEx investments in AI $43.2B Q1 spend suggests $170B+ annual run rate, above prior guidance |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | AWS growth accelerating to 24% in Q4 2025 Delivered 28% growth, fastest in 15 quarters |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Rufus would continue rapid expansion Grew from 250M to 300M customers, added new buy-for-me features |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Would expand perishable grocery to 2,300 cities by end of year Confirmed expansion to 2,300 cities with same-day delivery |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 2025 CapEx would be 'approximately $125 billion' On track based on $89.9B through Q3, but Q4 number not disclosed |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Anthropic Project Rainier going from 500K to 1M Trainium chips by year-end Confirmed they'll hit 1M+ chips by end of 2025 as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Trainium 2 would be 'fully subscribed' Confirmed still fully subscribed and now a multibillion-dollar business |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Would add 'at least another 1 gigawatt of power' in Q4 Added 1.2 gigawatts, beating their minimum commitment |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | AWS growth would accelerate due to capacity additions Hit 24% vs 20.2% prior quarter - delivered on capacity bringing growth acceleration |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Strong growth in both AI and core AWS services 20.2% AWS growth with contribution from both segments |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Trainium2 landing in larger quantities Now multibillion-dollar business, 150% QoQ growth, fully subscribed |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Continue expanding same-day delivery to rural communities 60% increase in rural communities, ahead of prior timeline |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | More capacity coming online in coming months and quarters 3.8 gigawatts added with 1+ more in Q4, though still supply constrained |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2 capex reasonably representative of back half 2025 $34.2B in Q3 vs $31.4B in Q2 - acceleration not representative |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | AWS margins will fluctuate over time driven by investment levels 32.9% in Q2 vs prior guidance of fluctuation - they telegraphed this correctly |
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