| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 6, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Full year 2026 adjusted EPS greater than $3.40 Raised to >$4.80, but includes non-recurring items |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Continue to drive margin improvement in Medicaid Q2 HBR deteriorated to 93.9% from Q1 93.1%, not improving |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Medicaid membership down 6% year-over-year Now expecting 8-9% decline, 50% worse than promised |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medicare Advantage path to break-even for 2027 Reiterated but still losing money in 2026 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medicaid HBR around 93.5% for full year Q2 at 93.9%, needs improvement in H2 to hit target |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Marketplace pre-tax margin around 3% for 2026 Now guiding 4.5-5%, though relies on unconfirmed risk adjustment |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Medicaid membership down 5-6% year-over-year Q1 slight decline consistent with guidance trajectory |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Medicare Advantage path to breakeven in 2027 Still committed despite 2027 advance notice disappointment |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | PDP pretax margin in the threes for 2025 Confirmed delivered 'well into the threes' for 2025 before 2026 reset to 2% |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Marketplace pretax margin around 4% for 2026 Now guided to ~3% pretax margin due to higher Silver tier utilization, though upside possible from risk adjustment |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Medicaid HBR stable year-over-year around 93.7% Q1 came in at 93.1%, management now says they'd be 'disappointed' if they only hit 93.7% |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Full year 2026 adjusted EPS to be greater than $3 Raised guidance to >$3.40 based on Q1 outperformance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Medicare Advantage progress toward 2027 breakeven No PDR for 2026, improved provider contract management |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Marketplace meaningful margin improvement for 2026 Expecting 4% pretax vs -1% in 2025, rates locked in |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | SG&A $500M pretax benefit 7.4% full year ratio, 110 bps lower than 2024 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Medicare segment $700M pretax favorability vs April On track per Q3 guidance, maintained in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 2025 composite Medicaid rate ~5% Achieved 5.5% vs 5% guidance |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Back half Medicaid HBR of approximately 93.5% Delivered 93.2% vs 93.5% target - 30 bps better |
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