| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 10/12 | 6 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 3, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 1 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-10-30 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | IDXD BLA under priority review with FDA PDUFA date of October 10 Still listed as a potential approval in the H2 2026 outlook; PDUFA date has not yet passed as of this call. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Otovair investments expected to accelerate growth in the second half of the year and beyond Management now guides Q3 2026 to be negatively impacted by the unwind of Q2 specialty-pharmacy purchases and pushes the acceleration target out to 2027. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Phase III Brunello study data for MK3000 (diabetic macular edema) anticipated during the year Still listed as an upcoming H2 2026 milestone this quarter; not yet reported. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Tulasocobart ATLAS-UC Phase 3 and Phase II SSC-ILD Athena data expected in 2026 Mixed readouts received: ATLAS-UC induction-only portion met primary endpoint, but SSC-ILD missed its primary endpoint; the full UC induction-and-maintenance study remains outstanding. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Phase III ISLAND 1 and 2 (islatravir + lenacapavir) data to be presented at an upcoming medical meeting Full results announced at AIDS 2026, demonstrating maintenance of virologic suppression. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Keytruda/Keytruda-Qlex plus Padcev in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (Keynote B15), FDA action date targeted August 17 FDA approved the expanded perioperative indication regardless of cisplatin eligibility. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Wellereg + Keytruda/Keytruda-Qlex in adjuvant clear cell RCC (LightSpark 022) granted priority review with PDUFA date of June 19 FDA approved the combination based on LightSpark O2-2, bringing Keytruda-based regimens to 13 earlier-stage indications. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | ENFLONSIA shipments to increase in second half Now saying minimal Q2 sales, pushing expectations further out |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Animal health continued strength Delivered 6% growth as expected |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | WINREVAIR continued strong demand and patient growth Grew to 1,600+ new patients from 1,500+ disclosed in Q4 |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | EPS guidance midpoint around $5.08 Raised midpoint to $5.10, small beat |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Revenue guidance of $65.5-67 billion for 2026 Raised guidance to $65.8-67 billion, modest improvement |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | KEYTRUDA QLEX permanent J code expected in April 2026 Received permanent J code on April 1st as promised |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Strategic BD with urgency Completed Verona ($1B+) and Sidera acquisitions, added $20B to pipeline opportunity |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Solid performance driven by oncology and animal health Both segments delivered as expected despite broader revenue headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Enlicitide Phase III data at AHA Positive results from CORAL reef studies presented November |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | KEYTRUDA QLEX approval and launch $35M initial sales, permanent J-code coming April as guided |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | WINREVAIR continued momentum Grew from $360M to $467M QoQ, strong prescription trends maintained |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | ENFLONSIA launch and initial uptake $79M Q3, $21M Q4 - initial stocking occurred but uptake constrained by market factors |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue investments in late-stage pipeline Now 80 Phase III trials vs ~60 previously mentioned, clear acceleration |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Verona Pharma acquisition closing in Q4 Closed in October, ahead of original Q4 timeline |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | CORALreef Lipids Phase III results Positive results announced, detailed data at AHA next week |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | WINREVAIR Japan launch in Q3 Launched in Q3 and described as 'off to a good start' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | ENFLONSIA launch ahead of RSV season $79M initial stocking completed, product available for 2025 season |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Return to growth in second half of 2025 Q3 delivered 4% growth vs -2% in Q2, clearly back to growth trajectory |
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