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Management credibility scorecard

Norfolk Southern (NSC)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call July 23, 2026
Get the next NSC call sheet
86%
Kept of 14 resolved
12
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
4
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26July 23, 20263/121 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags32Call sheet →
Q1'26April 24, 20267/121 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'25January 29, 202610/122 medium, 4 low flags60Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26DeliveredContinue momentum from March exit
Volumes did accelerate through the quarter
Q2'26DeliveredFocus on operating safely while serving customers
Safety metrics improved but service metrics deteriorated
Q2'26MissedRefile merger application by end of April
Now targeting end of July, 3-month delay
Q2'26MissedMaintain $8.2-8.4B cost guidance despite fuel
Abandoned after just one quarter, now $8.8-8.9B
Q2'26Pending$150M+ efficiency target for 2026
Reiterated but no specifics on progress in Q2
Q2'26ExceededAchieve typical 200 basis point OR improvement Q1 to Q2
Delivered 320 bps improvement, though partly due to fuel surcharge help
Q1'26DeliveredMaintain safety focus as core value
Continued accident rate improvements and specific examples of proactive safety measures
Q1'26DeliveredContinue productivity improvements beyond original targets
Exceeded cost takeout commitments again, though now hedging future targets
Q1'26DeliveredFight for every dollar of quality revenue
Clear evidence in merchandise growth and pricing discipline despite headwinds
Q1'26PendingNormal OR seasonality Q1 to Q2 (200 bps improvement)
Q2 will be the test, fuel headwinds make this challenging
Q1'26PendingCapEx spending $1.9B in 2026
No indication of changes, seems on track
Q1'26PendingCost base $8.2B to $8.4B for 2026
Q1 run rate suggests they're tracking to guidance but fuel volatility creates uncertainty
Q4'25DeliveredVehicle production challenged due to supplier disruptions in Q4
Auto production impacts materialized as expected, affected multiple NS-served plants
Q4'25DeliveredWe are on track to exceed our expense reduction commitments
Not only met but raised 2026 target from $100M to $150M
Q4'25DeliveredCapital spending decrease of 7.5% for 2025 vs 2024
Hit $2.2B CapEx target, delivered promised reduction
Q4'25DeliveredWe expect the merger impact to grow in Q4 and continue to be a challenge
Absorbed full quarter of competitive response, quantified at 1% revenue headwind
Q4'25ExceededRaising 2025 efficiency target to roughly $200 million
Delivered $216M in cost takeout, beat raised target by $16M
Q4'25DeliveredFourth quarter cost in absolute dollars will be in the $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion range
Stayed within guidance range even with land sale timing
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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