| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 22, 2026 | 6/12 | 3 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 22, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-28 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Energy deployments higher in 2026 than 2025 Q2 recovered to 13.5 GWh but full year target not quantified |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Operating expenses to remain elevated OpEx increased further with R&D, litigation, compute costs |
| Q2'26 | Missed | FSD approval in EU by Q2 Only Netherlands approved, EU review pushed to May at earliest |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Negative free cash flow for rest of 2026 Q2 FCF went negative as warned, CapEx doubled sequentially |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Show Optimus V3 middle of year Pushed back due to competitive concerns, now being cagey about timing |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Start Semi production soon Still saying 'will begin production soon,' no actual start confirmed |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Start Cybercab production Production started but Musk admits initial ramp will be 'very slow' |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Energy deployments higher than 2025 Q1 was down 38% but still expecting full-year growth |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Hardware 3 would get unsupervised FSD capability Complete reversal - now requires costly hardware retrofit |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Unsupervised FSD in dozens of major cities by end of year Still targeting dozen states, Austin and Houston expansions underway |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Over $20B CapEx for 2026 Raised to over $25B, 25% higher than previous guidance |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Optimus 3 unveil in a few months from Q4 call Pushed to mid-2026, blamed on competitor copying concerns |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | CyberCab production starting April 2026 Started production as promised, though acknowledged slow S-curve ramp |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Substantial CapEx increase in 2026 Went from 'substantial' to specific '>$20 billion' commitment |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Version 14 would have major improvements Released v14 with 'huge jump in performance' according to Ashok |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | CapEx around $9 billion for 2025 Came in slightly below $9B guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Unveiling Optimus 3 probably in Q1 Pushed to 'probably in a few months', now February or March |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Operating robotaxi in 8-10 metro areas by end of year Only operating in Austin and Bay Area, mentioned Nevada/Florida/Arizona pending |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | No safety drivers in large parts of Austin by end of year Actually achieved unsupervised rides with no chase car in Austin |
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