| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 14, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 14, 2026 | 5/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 15, 2026 | 10/12 | 7 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-14 | 10/12 | 6 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 15, 2025 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Net interest yield target of 2.3%, expected to be reached 'inside a couple of years' Multi-year target, not yet due; yield moved only to 2.16% this quarter, with timeline language softened to 'next several quarters'. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | NII ex-Global Markets breakout to be provided 'offline' to analysts Six months later, management explicitly stated they are 'probably not going to break it out between the two' going forward, reversing the earlier offer of transparency. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Card balance growth targeted to get 'back towards 5% type card growth' Management explicitly claimed this quarter that card balances grew 'nearly 5%...consistent with our medium-term goals disclosed at Investor Day'. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 NII growth expected at the upper end of the 6%-8% range Period not yet ended; management raised the explicit number to 'approximately 8 percent' this quarter, a revision upward within the prior range, not yet a final delivered/missed outcome. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 operating leverage expected to be in the range of 300-400 basis points FY2026 period has not ended (Q4 remains); this quarter's results (expense +7% vs revenue +3%) strongly suggest the range will be missed, but management did not restate or reaffirm the 300-400bps figure this call, instead falling back to 'return to operating leverage in Q4' and the lower medium-term 200-300bps band. Flag as an unacknowledged downward revision. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: AI tools helping teams deliver insights faster Lots of AI metrics but zero quantification of actual productivity gains |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q1: Maintain CET1 around 50bps management buffer Still at 120bps buffer (11.2% vs 10% minimum), no progress on tightening |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q1: Continue to see multiple levers supporting NII Cited loan/deposit growth and fixed rate repricing as promised |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q1: More than 200 basis points of operating leverage for the year Raised to 300-400bps but given H1 performance, H2 will decelerate sharply |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Expecting 6-8% full year NII growth (raised from 5-7%) Narrowed to upper end of range but didn't actually raise the range itself |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Effective tax rate of roughly 20% for 2026 Q1 was 17.5% (seasonal), reaffirmed just over 20% for full year |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Expect headcount to come down during 2026 (from Q4) Down 1,070 people since year-end 2025, on track for reduction |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Continue to accelerate credit card growth (from Q4) Credit card growth was 3% YoY, still slow despite continued promises of acceleration |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Q1 expenses about 4% higher than Q1 2025 Q1 expenses were $18.5B, roughly 4% increase as guided |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | More than 200 basis points of operating leverage in 2026 Generated 290 bps in Q1, reaffirmed 200+ bps for full year |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | NII growth of 5-7% for 2026 (from Investor Day and Q4 call) Raised guidance to 6-8% in Q1 due to no Fed cuts vs expected 2 cuts |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Headcount to remain disciplined and potentially come down Held flat at 213,000 despite hiring 17,000 new teammates, with expectation to decline in 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Global Markets to benefit from continued client repositioning 15th consecutive quarter of YoY revenue growth, up 10% again |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Investment banking pipeline looks good with constructive environment Fees up modestly to $1.67B with second half 25% above first half showing momentum |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Consumer deposits positioned to accelerate Third consecutive quarter of YoY growth with improving mix toward noninterest bearing |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Expect continued stability in total net charge-offs Not only stable but improved from 47 bps to 44 bps with another quarter of credit improvement |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 expenses to remain roughly in line with Q3 Q3 was $17.3B, Q4 was $17.4B - essentially flat as promised |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 NII will be in the higher end of $15.5-15.7B range Delivered $15.9B, beating the high end of guidance by $200M |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Asset sensitivity of $2.2B for 100 bps rate decline Reconfirmed same sensitivity figure in Q3, no change to guidance. |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q2: Operating leverage to return as NII grows Delivered 560 bps operating leverage, well above expectations. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Consumer deposit growth to continue Third consecutive quarter of consumer deposit growth, now declaring 'inflection.' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Expense growth to be revenue-related, flattish otherwise Q3 expenses up <1% linked quarter while compensable revenues grew 8% sequentially. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Second half NII growth to accelerate Q3 NII grew $572M linked quarter, clear acceleration from prior quarters. |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q2: NII exit Q4 in range of $15.5-15.7B on FTE basis Now guiding to $15.6B+ which is higher end of range despite rate cut headwinds. |
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