| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 31, 2026 | 4/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 1, 2026 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Space economy to reach $1B+ by 2030 No update on progress toward this target |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | No economic improvement assumed at midpoint of guidance Maintained conservative stance despite some green shoots |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Helium to provide incremental upside to guidance Now saying normalization timing uncertain, walking back upside narrative |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Electronics backlog additions with high degree of confidence Added $1B to backlog as promised |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Operating cash flow to step up in H2 like prior years Mentioned 'moderate' YoY growth but stopped providing absolute numbers |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Margins to increase at upper end or above traditional 40-60bps range for full year 2026 Q2 margins declined 30bps ex-passthrough, making full year target mathematically difficult |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Commercial space to reach $1B by end of decade (Q4 2025) Now discussing $1.7B threshold for separate reporting, major upgrade |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Helium supply relief to manifest in other segment (Q4 2025) Now explicitly excluding helium upside from guidance despite shortages |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | EPS growth 6% to 9% for 2026 (Q4 2025) Maintained same range, Q1 performance at top end supports guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Project backlog to get back toward $7B from $5.5B after startups (Q4 2025) Already at $7.1B despite major startups, ahead of timeline |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Expect full-year margins above long-term range of 30-50 bps (Q4 2025) Q1 showed 50 bps sequential improvement, tracking to exceed range |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Will announce new signature fab wins in coming months (Q4 2025) Still promising substantial new projects this year, maintaining confidence |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | China markets largely bottoming out China business actually grew faster than published IP rate for first time in quarters |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Second half operating cash flow seasonally stronger Q4 operating cash flow exceeded $3B as expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Manufacturing volumes resilient trend likely to continue into Q4 US manufacturing held up, automation equipment sales remained positive |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Electronics to provide robust growth for some time Continued strong electronics performance with fab startups and merchant demand |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | EMEA business will find pricing in line with weighted CPI Maintained pricing discipline in Europe despite volume weakness |
| Q4'25 | Pending | End 2025 with $7B+ backlog handle despite $1B startups Kept backlog at $10B but language shifted from confident to hopeful about reaching $7B after startups |
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