| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 23, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 23, 2026 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 27, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to deliver record workforce productivity 8th consecutive quarter achieved |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Comp per employee increase 4-5% Raised to 6% due to benefits inflation |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Coal expected to be positive full year Now saying 'challenging H2', this looks at risk |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | File revised merger application April 30 Confirmed complete, supplemental coming Monday |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain operating ratio improvement 59.2% vs 59.9% in Q1, improving despite fuel headwinds |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Deliver mid-single-digit EPS growth for 2026 Raised to high-single-digit growth after H1 delivery |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Full year coal results to be positive Q1 coal revenue +10% suggests strong start toward this goal |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue workforce productivity gains Record 7% improvement far exceeded typical 2-3% gains |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Quarterly pricing dollars exceed inflation dollars Q1 delivered with core pricing +325bps vs ~4% cost inflation |
| Q1'26 | Pending | High single-digit to low double-digit CAGR through 2027 Reaffirmed long-term targets despite merger timeline extension |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Operating ratio improvement in 2026 Q1 delivered 80bps improvement, but fuel headwinds building for Q2 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Mid single-digit EPS growth for 2026 Reiterated guidance, Q1 performance (+9%) suggests possible upside |
| Q4'25 | Pending | High single to low double-digit EPS CAGR through 2027 Reaffirmed despite mid-single digit 2026 outlook putting pressure on 2027 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Generate strong cash returns for shareholders $5.9B returned in 2025 (+25% vs 2024) through dividends and buybacks |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Price to value of service product Admitted pricing may not drive margins in 2026 despite record service metrics |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Outperform markets through business development Volume down only 4% vs broader market weakness, but still negative growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Industry-leading operating ratio and ROIC Maintained leadership position despite sequential deterioration |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Continue to improve operating ratio Q4 adjusted OR of 60% vs Q3's 58.5%, though they still expect 2026 improvement |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Target closing merger in 2027 Still maintaining 2027 timeline despite STB requesting additional information and calling it a 'short-term blip' |
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