| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 16, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 17, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 17, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 21, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 7 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | CET1 ratio glide path to approximately 10% by the end of 2027 Period not yet ended; CET1 actually moved further from that target this quarter, declining 20bps to 10.7% on buybacks and AFS repositioning. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 share buybacks of approximately $5 billion Period not yet ended; Q3 buybacks were $1.2B and Q4 guide was cut to ~$1B, a deceleration versus the pace implied by a flat $5B annual run-rate. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 revenue growth of 3.5%-4% and NII growth of 1%-1.5% Period not yet ended; no explicit restatement of the full-year revenue/NII ranges was given this quarter, only quarterly guidance pieces. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 ROTCE to be greater than 14% Period not yet ended; Q3 adjusted ROTCE came in at 14.6%, tracking near the floor of the prior commitment, but management did not restate the specific number this quarter, instead saying only it is 'on track'. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Q3 2026 non-interest income to remain relatively stable on a linked-quarter basis Reported non-interest income fell to $84M due to AFS repositioning and RAC losses; even adjusted non-interest income declined 2.9% LQ, missing the 'stable' characterization. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Q3 2026 non-interest expense to increase about 2% linked quarter off $3.1B base Actual reported expense increased only 1.6% LQ ($50M), beating the expense guide favorably. |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Q3 2026 net interest income to increase approximately 1.5% linked quarter Actual TE NII increased only 1.1% LQ to $3.7B versus the 1.5% guide - a modest shortfall despite the extra day benefit cited. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | NIM expansion in second half Still claiming Q3 NIM will improve but walked back magnitude |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | 14% ROTCE in 2026 Now guiding to 'above 14%' after 15.4% Q2 print |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Share buybacks of $4 billion Raised to $5 billion, using balance sheet optimization savings |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Net charge-offs of 55 basis points Tracking at 50bps in Q2, ahead of plan |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | GAAP expense growth of 1.25-2.25% Tightened to 1.75%, better expense control than revenue |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Net interest income growth of 3-4% Slashed to 1-1.5%, blamed on deposit mix not rates |
| Q2'26 | Missed | 2026 revenue growth of 4% Quietly walked back to 3.5-4% this quarter |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Net interest margin to exceed 2025 average of 3.03% Currently at 3.07%, confident in full-year target despite Q1 pressure |
| Q1'26 | Missed | NII growth of 3% to 4% in 2026 Lowered to 2-3% due to no Fed cuts assumption - external factor but still a miss |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Positive operating leverage acceleration Achieved 250bp YoY operating leverage vs 100bp in 2025 |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | $4 billion share repurchases in 2026 Raised to $5 billion target, already executed $1.1B in Q1 vs $750M in Q4 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 3% to 4% average loan growth in 2026 Maintained guidance despite Q1 deceleration to 0.7% LQ growth |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 15% ROTCE target in 2027 locked in Reaffirmed with high confidence, now at 13.8% trending toward 14% in 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Revenue growth to double in 2026 vs 2025 Guiding 4-5% revenue growth for 2026 - need to verify this is indeed double 2025 pace |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Net charge-offs of 55 basis points in 2025 Delivered 54 bps, 1 bp better than guided range of 55-60 bps |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year 2025 adjusted expenses up approximately 1% Maguire confirmed adjusted expenses increased 1% for full year |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | $750 million Q4 share repurchases Executed $750M as guided in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Net interest margin expansion in Q4 Q3 promised Q4 expansion, delivered +6 bps to 3.07% |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Interest-bearing deposit beta to mid-40% area in Q4 Q3 promised mid-40s beta, Q4 achieved 45% cumulative beta |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Investment banking optimism for Q4 based on pipeline Q3 'optimism' yielded only 3.7% growth after 58% Q3 surge - momentum clearly stalled |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Accelerating momentum with client deposit growth in Q4 2026 End-of-period wholesale deposits up 6% linked quarter, client deposits growing |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Revenue growth to more than double in 2026 versus 2025 Q3 promised 'more than double' versus 2% 2025 rate, Q4 guided 4-5% - math works |
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