| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | September 30, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | June 24, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | March 18, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | 2025-12-17 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2025-09-23 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-06-25 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Pending | Capital return to increase from December 9, 2026 This is a future-dated commitment with the deadline not yet reached; unverified until that date passes with a stated increase. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Expect quarterly CapEx in fiscal 2027 to be above fiscal Q4 (FY26) levels Q4 FY26 CapEx was $10.8 billion; Q1 FY27 CapEx is guided to approximately $11.5 billion, confirming the directional guide within the same call. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Forecast free cash flow to increase substantially again in fiscal Q4 FCF rose from $18.3 billion in Q3 to $33.2 billion in Q4, an 81% sequential increase. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Fiscal Q4 EPS guide of $31 ± $1 Actual Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $33.42, above the top end of the range. |
| Q4'26 | Missed | Fiscal Q4 operating expenses guide of approximately $1.65 billion Actual Q4 OpEx was $2.6 billion, driven by a deliberate decision to increase FY26 incentive compensation for every global team member. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Fiscal Q4 gross margin guide of approximately 86% Actual Q4 gross margin was 87%. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Fiscal Q4 revenue guide of $50 billion ± $1 billion Actual Q4 revenue was $54.2 billion, above the top end of the range. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Complete first strategic customer agreement Signed 16 agreements vs 1 promised |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 1-gamma to become majority of DRAM bits by mid-2026 Still claiming on track to be highest volume node ever |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Singapore HBM packaging to contribute meaningfully in 1H 2027 Reconfirmed on track |
| Q3'26 | Pending | ID1 fab first wafer output mid-calendar 2027 Reconfirmed timeline, on track |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Gross margin approximately 81% Delivered 84.9%, beat by 390bps |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Fiscal Q3 revenue $33.5B ± $750M Delivered $41.5B, beat high end by $7.25B or 21% |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Calendar 2025 server unit growth in high teens percentage range Achieved and extended forecast to low-teens growth for calendar 2026 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Singapore HBM facility meaningful contribution to calendar 2027 supply Timeline maintained with confidence - on track for advanced packaging ramp |
| Q2'26 | Pending | G9 NAND node majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026 Reconfirmed timeline - execution proceeding as planned |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 1γ DRAM node majority of bit output in second half of calendar 2026 Reconfirmed timeline for majority mix by mid-calendar 2026 - on track |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Calendar 2026 DRAM and NAND bit shipments grow approximately 20% Softened commitment to 'approximately in line with industry' - internal targets under pressure |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | HBM share in line with DRAM share achieved in calendar 2025 Confirmed achievement but now refusing further share disclosure - suggests strategic pivot or competitive pressure |
| Q2'26 | Pending | First wafer output at Idaho fab in mid-calendar 2027 Timeline maintained but enthusiasm dampened - went from 'pulling in timeline' to neutral status update |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Singapore HBM assembly facility to contribute to supply beginning in calendar 2027 Reaffirmed timeline for Singapore facility contribution in calendar 2027 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Technology transitions to be primary driver of supply growth in calendar 2026 Maintained guidance that 1-gamma transitions will drive majority of DRAM supply growth |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Fiscal 2026 CapEx to be higher than fiscal 2025 levels Raised CapEx guidance to $20B vs $13.8B in fiscal 2025, materially higher |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Pricing agreements with almost all customers for vast majority of HBM3E supply in calendar 2026 Confirmed completed agreements on price and volume for entire calendar 2026 HBM supply |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | First wafer output in Idaho expected in second half of calendar 2027 Pulled timeline forward to mid-calendar 2027, six months earlier than promised |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | HBM4 on track to ramp with high yields in second calendar 2026 Confirmed HBM4 production ramp timeline maintained, began customer sampling |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | HPM share on track to be in line with overall DRAM share in calendar Q3 Achieved target of HBM share matching DRAM share in CQ3 as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | G9 NAND production ramp progressing well Ramped for both TLC and QLC, qualified G9 QLC for enterprise storage |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Approximately $14 billion fiscal 2025 CapEx Came in at $13.8B, slightly under guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | HBM4 volume production ramp in calendar 2026 Reaffirmed with customer sampling already completed |
| Q4'25 | Pending | First DRAM wafer output at ID1 to begin in second half of calendar 2027 Reaffirmed timeline with construction milestone completed |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Record revenue and significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025 Achieved record $37.4B revenue, gross margins expanded 17 percentage points to 41% |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Expect to reach HBM shares similar to overall DRAM share sometime in second half of calendar 2025 Now targeting calendar Q3, ahead of original timeline |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Multibillion dollars in HBM revenue in fiscal 2025 Already at $6B+ run rate, will likely hit $8B+ for full fiscal year |
| Q3'25 | Missed | We forecast CapEx to be over $3 billion in fiscal Q3 Actual CapEx was $2.7B, guidance was over $3B - timing-related underspend |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | HBM share similar to overall DRAM share by calendar Q4 2025 Timeline pulled forward to 'sometime in second half of calendar 2025' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Expect to exit fiscal 2025 with tight DRAM inventories On track - inventory days down to 139 from 158, expect below 120-day target by Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | We see a return to bit shipment growth in the months ahead (NAND) NAND bit shipments up mid-20s percentage range sequentially in Q3 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Customer inventories will get in a better place by spring time frame Management confirmed customer inventory levels are now healthy overall across end markets |
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