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Management credibility scorecard

Apple (AAPL)

4 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q3'26) · latest call July 30, 2026
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90%
Kept of 20 resolved
18
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
3
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q3'26July 30, 20266/122 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags22Call sheet →
Q2'26April 30, 20269/123 medium, 4 low flags60Call sheet →
Q1'262026-01-298/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25October 30, 202510/121 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q3'26DeliveredContinue investing incrementally in AI on top of normal roadmap
R&D growing faster than company, 23% OpEx growth confirms increased investment
Q3'26DeliveredMemory cost impact partially offset by carry-in inventory
Confirmed offset but warned decreasing benefit over time
Q3'26MissedSupply constraints primarily on Mac, manageable for iPhone
Now saying constraints will 'increase significantly' affecting iPhone, Mac, and iPad
Q3'26PendingSiri AI and personalized features coming this year
Still claiming 'this year' but China/EU launches now indefinite
Q3'26MissedServices to grow at similar rate to March quarter
Services decelerated 400 bps from 16% to 12%, blamed on FX and gaming
Q2'26DeliveredContinue investing in R&D at accelerating pace
OpEx up 24% YoY with R&D scaling faster than company overall per Cook's comments
Q2'26ExceededOperating expenses $18.4-18.7B for March quarter
Came in at $18.9B above range due to one-time SG&A expense-slight miss but explained
Q2'26ExceededGross margin guidance 48-49% for March quarter
Delivered 49.3% above high end of range despite memory cost headwinds
Q2'26ExceededMarch revenue growth 13-16% comprehending iPhone supply constraints
Delivered 17% growth above high end of 16% guidance range
Q2'26ExceededServices revenue to grow at rate similar to December's 14%
Delivered 16% vs guided 14% similar rate-outperformed expectations
Q2'26ExceededMemory would have bit more impact in Q2 vs minimal Q1 impact
They warned of 'bit more' but delivered 'significantly higher memory costs' in Q2-understated the pressure
Q1'26DeliveredOperating expenses $18.1-18.5B for December
Came in at $18.4B, within range
Q1'26ExceededGross margin 47-48% for December quarter
Delivered 48.2%, above high end of range
Q1'26PendingMore personalized Siri expected to release next year
Now saying 'coming this year' - pulled timeline forward via Google partnership
Q1'26DeliveredServices revenue to grow at rate similar to fiscal 2025
14% growth matches FY25 rate of 14%, right on target
Q1'26ExceededDecember quarter revenue to be best ever for company and iPhone
Revenue $143.8B vs $102.5B prior quarter, iPhone $85.3B - significant beat
Q1'26ExceededWe expect to return to growth in Greater China in Q1
Delivered 38% growth vs just promising return to growth - major beat
Q4'25PendingWe expect to release personalized Siri features next year
Still on track, reiterated same timeline with same language
Q4'25DeliveredWe estimate the impact to add about $1.1 billion to our costs
Exactly hit $1.1B tariff cost estimate
Q4'25DeliveredWe expect operating expenses to be between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion
Came in at $15.9B, slightly above high end but within reasonable range
Q4'25ExceededWe expect gross margin to be between 46% and 47%
Delivered 47.2%, above high end of range despite tariff headwinds
Q4'25ExceededWe expect Services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate similar to what we reported in the June quarter
Delivered 15% vs 13% in June quarter - actually accelerated
Q4'25DeliveredWe expect our September quarter total company revenue to grow mid- to high single digits year-over-year
Delivered 8% growth, within high single digits range
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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