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Management credibility scorecard

Southern (SO)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call July 30, 2026
Get the next SO call sheet
93%
Kept of 14 resolved
13
Kept or exceeded
1
Missed
10
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26July 30, 20267/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags21Call sheet →
Q1'26April 30, 202611/127 low flags20Call sheet →
Q4'25February 19, 202611/123 medium, 3 low flags50Call sheet →
Q3'25October 30, 202512/121 medium, 5 low flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26DeliveredContinue sourcing equity in shareholder-friendly manner
Used ATM for $700M, avoiding block offerings. Relatively clean execution.
Q2'26PendingFull year 2026 toward top of $4.50-4.60 range
Narrowed guidance to 'near or at the top' this quarter. On track.
Q2'26ExceededQ2 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.00
Delivered $1.13, 13c beat. Sandbagging continues.
Q2'26PendingSouthern Power recontracting opportunities in 2030s
Still talking about it but no contracts signed yet. 'Fruitful conversations' isn't progress.
Q2'26PendingMaintain 17% FFO to debt path by 2029
Reiterated but no update on progress. Equity needs suggest challenge.
Q2'26Missed6GW of late-stage projects to be finalized 'in the near term'
Only 3GW now expected near-term. Half the pipeline slipped or died.
Q1'26DeliveredBase rates held stable in Alabama until 2029, Georgia until 2028
Reaffirmed and highlighted recent Georgia rate filing to lower rates for storm/fuel recovery.
Q1'26DeliveredSouthern Power uprates of up to 700MW under consideration
Moved forward with 400MW, evaluating additional 300MW. Ahead of schedule.
Q1'26PendingFFO to debt of approximately 17% by 2029
Reaffirmed commitment. Credit metrics path appears intact.
Q1'26PendingLate-stage 3GW highly likely to progress to executed contracts
Said 'near term' execution. Will grade this in Q2-Q3.
Q1'26PendingAnnual electricity sales growth of 10% average from 2026-2030
Too early to judge, but 42% data center growth in Q1 suggests upside potential.
Q1'26PendingRetail electric sales growth of at least 3% in 2026
Q1 delivered 2.3% weather-normal growth, putting them on track but early days.
Q4'25DeliveredMaintain 15% FFO to debt through 2027 while deploying capital
Reaffirmed 15% through 2027, 17% by 2029 target with current financing plan
Q4'25DeliveredAddress $9 billion equity needs in shareholder-friendly manner
$7 billion of $9 billion addressed through ATM forwards and convertibles, remaining $2B plan outlined
Q4'25ExceededContinue constructive work with public service commissions on multiyear rate stabilization
Secured rate freezes through 2029 in Georgia, 2028 in Alabama, beyond previous timelines
Q4'25PendingFinal determination on Georgia 10 gigawatt generation request by end of 2025
Management said December 19 ruling date, but didn't report final outcome on this February call
Q4'25DeliveredAdditional clarity on long-term earnings trajectory, potentially increasing base as early as 2027
Raised long-term growth from 5-7% to 8-9% through 2028, confirmed rebasing
Q4'25DeliveredComplete update to long-term plan during Q4 2025 earnings call
Provided comprehensive 5-year capital plan, 3-year EPS guidance, and sales forecasts as promised
Q3'25ExceededDisciplined approach to large load contracting
Signed 2 GW in just 2 months with full cost recovery and customer protections
Q3'25Delivered2.5 GW generation construction online over next 2 years
Construction continues on 3 gas turbines and 7 battery facilities as planned
Q3'25DeliveredSouthern Natural Gas System 4 expansion moving forward
$3B project progressing as scheduled with strong contracting interest
Q3'25PendingGeorgia PSC decision on 10 GW generation by year-end
Timeline remains December 19 for final commission ruling
Q3'25PendingProvide complete update to long-term plan in Q4 2025 call
Reaffirmed commitment for February call including 2026 guidance and long-term trajectory
Q3'25DeliveredContinue utilizing equity or equity equivalents toward 17% FFO to debt
Issued additional $1.8B through ATM forwards, now $7B+ of $9B need addressed
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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