| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 31, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 1, 2026 | 9/12 | 6 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Real estate secondaries first close in back half of year Reiterated H2 2026 timeline |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FRE margin expansion toward upper end of 0-150bps range YTD at 42.3%, needs acceleration in H2 to hit upper end |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Japan fund to reach hard cap later this year On track for Q3 close at hard cap per current commentary |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Hold significant first close for global data center fund this summer Pushed to 'late Q3 and into Q4', clear timeline slip |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Complete Alternative Credit Fund 3 fundraise in Q2 at hard cap Raised $8.5B at hard cap, exceeded $6.5B target significantly |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Launch fourth SDL fund with first close late Q3/early Q4 Now saying first close 'sometime in the fall', slight slippage in specificity |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Software portfolio resilience through AI concerns Commissioned external consultant study but portfolio performance yet to be tested through full cycle |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | European and Infrastructure deployment acceleration European direct lending had 'very strong deployment' while Infrastructure showed 'notable strength' |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Strong deployment despite market volatility $32B+ deployment vs $28B prior year, +14% growth despite 41% industry M&A decline |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Record fundraising year expectations $30B Q1 vs $21B prior year Q1, +46% growth puts on track for record annual fundraising |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued margin expansion toward high end of 0-150bps range FRE margin expanded 90bps YoY to 42.4%, tracking toward upper end of target range |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2025 guidance of 16-20% FRE growth, 20-25% realized income growth FRE grew 26% YoY, realized income grew 24% YoY, both exceeding high end of guidance ranges |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintain conservative loan-to-value ratios Portfolio LTV at ~44%, software book even lower at 37% |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Benefit from industry diversification and specialization Added 100+ new borrowers across 21 industries, expanded specialized verticals |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Stable credit quality metrics Non-accruals remained at 1.8% at cost, in line with prior quarter and year |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue generating realized gains from portfolio management Generated over $100M in pretax realized gains, equity co-investments averaged 25%+ IRR |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintain dividend coverage through spillover income $988M spillover provides 2+ quarters coverage as promised |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Higher origination volumes in second half of 2025 Q4 originations of $5.8B were 53% above Q4 2024, record annual originations achieved |
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