| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 4/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 3, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 29, 2025 | 9/12 | 5 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Missed | Modest sell-through growth Q2 vs Q1 Sell-through approximately flat, saved only by Europe offsetting US weakness |
| Q2'26 | Pending | IQ bidirectional EV charger limited deployment Q4 Now saying 'pilot shipments' instead of deployment |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Full SST system demo by end of year Language weakening from 'demo' to 'working system' |
| Q2'26 | Pending | G5 battery pilots in Q3 Pushed back from original timeline, now just 'initial shipments before year-end' |
| Q2'26 | Missed | 500 originations per week by end of year Still at 200/week with no growth trajectory despite adding installers |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Propel expansion to 12 states in Q3 Currently at 6 states, needs to double footprint in one quarter |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 revenue higher than Q1 driven by safe harbor Technically delivered ($292M vs $283M) but only due to Safe Harbor explosion |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 52 utility approvals for meter collar in Q4 Reached 64 utilities covering 34M accounts, ahead of expectations. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Bidirectional EV charger Q4 2026 availability Reaffirmed Q4 target with limited deployments. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Non-China battery cells in Q1 with scaling in H1 2026 Confirmed receiving first non-China cells in Q1, on track. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | IQ9 for global residential markets in Q1 2026 Confirmed shipping this quarter as promised. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Fifth-gen battery pilots Q3, shipping Q4 Reaffirmed same timeline. No delays announced. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Q1 revenue around $250M excluding safe harbor Came in at ~$248M excluding safe harbor, but guided $270-300M total. Underlying demand 10-15% below expectations. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Essent partnership driving Netherlands battery demand Partnership active, now planning 100 homeowner events for 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q1 2026 preliminary view of $250M revenue Raised guidance to $270-300M, though includes $35M safe harbor |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Meter collar expanding utility approvals Reached 52 utilities vs 39 in Q3, including all California IOUs |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Non-China battery cells by end of 2025 Pushed to Q1 2026 delivery, H1 2026 production scaling |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | IQ9 commercial microinverter shipping in December Confirmed December shipments began with 50,000+ unit Q1 backlog |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Fourth-generation battery ramping with 40% of U.S. shipments in Q3 Delivered 70% of U.S. battery shipments as fourth-gen in Q4, ahead of ramp expectations |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Non-China cell packs by end of 2025 Reaffirmed timeline, scaling into 2026 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Expanding TPO relationships and financing solutions Still in discussions, awaiting Treasury guidance on safe harbor |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Fourth-generation battery systems shipping in U.S. starting June Ramped to 40% of U.S. battery shipments by Q3 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | IQ9 microinverters launching in Q4 Confirmed December shipping for commercial IQ9 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continued growth in the U.S. and seasonal softness in Europe for Q3 U.S. grew 29% QoQ, Europe down 38% QoQ |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q3 battery shipments 190-210 MWh Shipped 195 MWh, within range |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q3 revenue guidance $330-370 million Delivered $410.4M, beat by $40M due to safe harbor pull-forward |
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