| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 23, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 23, 2026 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 7/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | $2.15-2.45B free cash flow $1.15B YTD suggests back-half loaded, at risk with higher CapEx |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Supply chain flexibility to meet demand Admitted they couldn't get another $1B of fleet, contradicting Q1 confidence |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Manage delivery costs effectively Still talking about repositioning challenges, fuel added 20-30bps headwind |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | $45-50M of restructuring savings Running at $12M/quarter = $48M annualized, but margins still compressing |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 40 specialty cold starts for the year 28 YTD (17 in Q1, 11 in Q2), need 12 per quarter in H2 to hit target |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Flat margins for full year 2026 Q2 margins down 40bps YoY ex-gains despite claiming cost savings are working |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Capital discipline and efficient deployment ROIC at 11.8% above WACC, raised CapEx only with improved demand |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Positive fleet productivity to overcome 1.5% inflation 2.3% in Q1 well above hurdle rate |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued double-digit specialty growth 14% growth in Q1 maintains trend |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Strong free cash flow generation in 2026 $1.05B in Q1 puts them well on track for $2.15-2.45B guide |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Total revenue $16.8-17.3B for 2026 Raised to $16.9-17.4B, $100M increase |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Around 40 specialty cold starts in 2026 17 opened in Q1 vs ~10 expected based on full-year guidance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Flat margins for full year 2026 at midpoint excluding H&E benefit Reaffirmed but now requiring $45-50M in cost actions to achieve |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Open 50 specialty cold starts in 2025 Opened 60 cold starts, including 13 in Q4, above original target |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Sell approximately $2.8B of fleet in 2025 Sold $2.73B OEC, held high-time assets to meet demand instead |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Generate $2.1-2.3B free cash flow in 2025 Generated $2.18B, within guided range despite higher CapEx |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Spend over $4B on fleet CapEx in 2025 Spent $4.19B, above original $4B+ target due to demand strength |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Return almost $2.4B to shareholders in 2025 Returned $2.4B through $1.9B buybacks and $464M dividends |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Specialty business to grow at double-digit rate for foreseeable future Specialty rental revenue up 11% in Q3, maintaining double-digit trajectory |
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