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Call sheet · Q4'25

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q4'25 earnings call · held March 31, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is management's admission that 18MW of GPU cloud could generate more profit than their entire Bitcoin mining history, yet they abandoned the strategy after customer pushback, revealing they don't actually know what customers want. The market sees an AI infrastructure play, but this is really a speculative land bank hoping the AI boom solves their business model before they run out of cash. The binding constraint isn't permits or power, it's that no customer has signed anything despite 'surging interest' because Keel is selling future promises while customers want operating assets today. CEO said it best: 'Investment-grade tenants value derisked sites where they can move from lease to revenue fast,' which is exactly what Keel doesn't have. My view changes if they sign a single lease with an investment-grade tenant at their claimed $150+/kW/month rates.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: Washington GPU cloud could eclipse entire Bitcoin mining cash flow history with just 18MW
  • The obvious pivot from Bitcoin to AI infrastructure, but they're deliberately sandbagging lease timing to capture better economics
  • The quiet reversal: GPU-as-a-service strategy abandoned at Washington after customer conversations

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue (continuing ops)$69M (Q3, +156% YoY)$229M (FY25, +72% YoY)Full year growth decelerated from Q3 pace
Operating Loss$29M (Q3)$150M (FY25)Losses widening as transformation accelerates
Net Loss per Share$0.08 (Q3)$0.38 (FY25)Nearly 5x increase in per-share losses
Cash & Bitcoin Holdings$820M (Q3)$520M (Current)$300M burn in ~4 months
Total Liquidity$1B+ (Q3 with Macquarie)$520M (Macquarie repaid)Liquidity cut in half but Macquarie covenants removed
Adjusted EBITDA$20M (Q3, 28% margin)$29M (FY25)Minimal annual growth despite revenue surge
Bitcoin Mining Hash RateStable in Q3Wind-down acceleratingActive fleet reduction commenced
Secured Power Portfolio2.2GW pipeline2.2GW pipelineNo new power secured
HPC Revenue$0$0Still pre-revenue on HPC pivot
Panther Creek Capacity350MW secured410MW+ with ISA conversion+60MW expansion identified

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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