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Call sheet · Q4'24

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q4'24 earnings call · held March 27, 2025 · compared with the Q3'24 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The HPC pivot is vaporware: after 5 months of 'acceleration,' they have zero customers, no timeline, and just admitted it'll take 9-12 months minimum for any hyperscaler deal. The 'transformational' Stronghold acquisition was really a bailout, funded by selling their crown jewel Yguazu site because they couldn't afford to complete it. The binding constraint is capital: sub-$100M CapEx for 2025 means they can't fund meaningful growth in either mining OR HPC. Most revealing quote: 'We have no need nor plans for a large miner purchase in 2025 or 2026,' translation: we're out of money. My view changes if they announce a real HPC customer with committed revenue by Q2 2025.

The 30-second version

  • HPC pivot quietly dying: feasibility 'confirmations' with zero customer commitments after 5 months
  • Hashrate growth looks impressive but they're burning capital to stay competitive
  • Paraguay sale reveals the constraint: they had to dump their largest site to fund US growth

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'24Q4'24Change
Revenue$45M (YoY +30%)$56M (YoY +21%)+24% QoQ but YoY growth decelerating
Bitcoin Mined703 BTC654 BTC-7% decline despite hashrate growth
Direct Mining Margin38%47%+900 bps expansion
Adjusted EBITDA$6M (12% margin)$14M (25% margin)+133% growth, margin doubled
Net Income-$37M loss$15M profitSwung to profitability
Hashrate (Operational)11.9 EH18.6 EH+56% growth in one quarter
Efficiency21 watts/terahash19 watts/terahash10% improvement, hit Q2 2025 target early
Energized Megawatts324 MW461 MW+42% increase
Cash G&A (excluding one-time)$11M$14M+27% increase in core opex
Operating Loss-$44M-$16M64% improvement but still losing money operationally

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
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The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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