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Call sheet · Q2'24

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q2'24 earnings call · held August 9, 2024 · compared with the Q1'24 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that management is brilliantly timing an HPC pivot for the Bitcoin cycle top in late 2025, not panic-pivoting like peers. Yes, they missed Q2 guidance and have equipment quality issues, but the real tell is Sharon's deliberate construction delay: they're hedging because Bitcoin mining economics at $0.04 hash price barely work. The binding constraint isn't execution, it's power economics as evidenced by their scramble for lower-cost sites while simultaneously exploring higher-revenue HPC alternatives. Quote: 'if hash price were to go up to $0.16, it would be $310 a megawatt hour' versus HPC's guaranteed $140-210. My view changes if hash price sustains above $0.06 for two months, making pure mining expansion clearly profitable again.

The 30-second version

  • HPC/AI pivot is perfectly timed for the Bitcoin cycle top, not a panic move
  • 70% hashrate growth sounds impressive but 3,000 underperforming miners reveal quality control issues
  • Sharon's 120MW flexibility is the tell: they're hedging because Bitcoin economics are breaking

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'24Q2'24Change
Revenue$50M (Q1 2024, +67% YoY)$42M (Q2 2024, +17% YoY)-16% QoQ collapse
Mining Revenue$49M (Q1 2024)$40M (Q2 2024)-18% QoQ deterioration
Gross Mining Margin64% (Q1 2024)51% (Q2 2024)-1300 bps margin compression
Adjusted EBITDA$23M (Q1 2024, 46% margin)$12M (Q2 2024, 28% margin)-48% QoQ with 1800 bps margin collapse
Bitcoin Mined943 BTC (Q1 2024)614 BTC (Q2 2024)-35% QoQ production decline
Direct Mining Cost/BTC$20,500 (Q1 2024)$30,600 (Q2 2024)+49% cost inflation
Total Cash Cost/BTCNot disclosed (Q1 2024)$47,300 (Q2 2024)New disclosure, concerning level
Hashrate7.1 EH/s (Q1 exit)12.1 EH/s (Q2 exit)+70% QoQ growth
Fleet Efficiency35 w/TH (Q1 avg)28 w/TH (Q2 avg)20% efficiency improvement
Total Liquidity$124M (Q1 2024)$195M (Q2 2024)+57% liquidity build

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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