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Call sheet · Q2'25

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q2'25 earnings call · held August 12, 2025 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Argentina's shutdown paradoxically improving margins while generating 2+ years of equivalent cash flow upfront, a rare win-win cost action. The market sees 'HPC transformation' but I see a company breaking ground in 4 months without a single signed customer, hoping Pennsylvania's AI gold rush validates their pivot. The binding constraint isn't power or location, it's customer acquisition velocity: 'these deals take a lot longer than Bitcoin mining transactions.' Management's tell: 'There's nothing preventing us from doing a deal now' except, apparently, anyone willing to sign. My view changes if they announce even one named HPC customer with committed megawatts before breaking ground.

The 30-second version

  • Argentina shutdown unlocks $18M immediate liquidity while IMPROVING margins: the rare cost cut that's actually accretive
  • Panther Creek timeline solidified with 50MW by end-2026, but customer conversations still 'ongoing' despite breaking ground in Q4
  • Share buyback program already consuming 10% of authorization in 2 weeks signals management sees massive disconnect

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Revenue$67M (up 33% YoY)$78M (up 87% YoY)+16% QoQ acceleration
Bitcoin Mined699 BTC718 BTC+2.7% despite halving impact
Direct Mining Cost/BTC$47,800$48,200+0.8% deterioration
All-in Cash Cost/BTC$72,300$77,100+6.6% cost inflation
Operating Loss$32M$40M+25% loss expansion
Net Loss$36M ($0.07/share)$29M ($0.05/share)19% loss improvement
Adjusted EBITDA$15M (23% margin)$14M (18% margin)-500 bps margin compression
Hash Rate19.5 EH17.7 EH-9.2% from Argentina shutdown
Fleet Efficiency19 J/TH17 J/TH+10.5% efficiency improvement
BTC Holdings~960 BTC1,200 BTC+25% HODL increase

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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