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Call sheet · Q2'26

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q2'26 earnings call · held August 10, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story isn't the $141M headline loss, it's that two specific, checkable commitments from last quarter quietly died this quarter: the Bitcoin hashrate metric disappeared entirely after an explicit 14-to-5 EH/s guide, and the Moses Lake 10MW option, pitched as a zero-friction growth lever, was simply abandoned ('No, we've decided to give up that option'). The binding constraint here isn't power or demand, management insists both are abundant, it's commercial execution speed: zero leases signed against a Q1 target of three by year-end, and when asked directly if that target still holds, the CEO pivoted to 'we're still in active due diligence and negotiations' rather than saying yes. Add a confirmed Panther Creek permitting delay and a $458M convert that funds expansion but also adds dilution risk, and the picture is a company executing competently on infrastructure mechanics while the one metric that actually moves the stock, signed contracted revenue, remains stubbornly at zero. My view changes if Keel actually delivers a signed lease before the next call, or if the promised December/January expansion-capacity update comes with a hard megawatt number instead of another soft confidence statement.

The 30-second version

  • The Bitcoin hashrate metric just quietly vanished
  • Still zero leases signed, and management won't say '3 leases' anymore
  • The one concrete optionality they had, they gave up

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$37M, -23% YoY$30M vs $61M YoY, -51%Revenue decline accelerated sharply, -23% to -51% YoY
Operating income/(loss)-$98M incl. $28M D&A-$141M incl. $63M accelerated D&ALoss widened 44% driven by one-time rig shutdown charge
Loss from continuing operations-$128M / -$0.21 EPS-$64M / -$0.11 EPSSequential loss narrowed, but prior-year comp was +$13M income
Adjusted EBITDA-$17M-$24MDeteriorated sequentially despite revenue mix shift
Cash SG&A run-rateGuided ~$100M/year, $25M/qtrTracking $100M/year, $23M/qtr avg H1In-line with guide, no surprise
Total liquidity$533M as of May 8$819M as of Aug 7+54%, but entirely financing-driven, not organic
Bitcoin sold (proceeds)269 BTC for $20M (Jan-May)1,085 BTC for $75M (Apr-Aug)Liquidation pace 4x accelerated
BTC fair value change-$41M loss-$20M loss vs +$32M gain YoYSmaller loss sequentially but still a swing from prior-year gain
Leases signed (of 2026 target of 3)Target: 3 by year-end0 signed; target not reaffirmedNo progress, and management avoided restating the numeric commitment
Moses Lake expansion option10MW option 'secured,' low-frictionOption abandoned, capped at 18MWOptionality destroyed, not exercised

Accountability tracked

5 new promises made3 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full BITF Q2'26 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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